What's The Fewest Wins Needed To Make The NFL Playoffs?

The NFL guarantees a playoff spot for the best team in each division. We ask: what's the mathematically fewest wins an NFL team could have and still make the playoffs?

There is actually a bit of graph theory in this calculation, and the pigeonhole principle also makes an appearance.

This video explains how a team with no wins could actually make the playoffs. This does depend on many games ending in ties which are very rare. So excluding ties, it turns out a team with only 3 wins could make the playoffs.

NFL scheduling infographic

Worst NFL teams that made the playoffs

2014 Atlanta Falcons could make the playoffs with a 5-11 record

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[MindYourDecisions]

NFC East teams must have seen my video from 2014 and decided to test the theory.

[tehcrazykid]

Is this how browns fans console themselves?

[Utred]

0-10-6 is equal to 3-13 for purposes of win %.

[LegitGamezzzzz]

what about the best possible record and still miss the playoffs

[congruentleek]

For those who have asked about the most wins to miss the playoffs, a 14-2 team may miss the playoffs. There are 2 combinations that can cause this.

1. Two divisions produce a total of five 14+ win teams.
One division has 3 teams that finish 4-2 in division and win all their nondivision games. Therefore, all three are 14-2, one is the division winner and two are not division winners.
Another division, not the division that plays full head-to-head with the first division, produces either two teams 5-1 in division or one 6-0 and one 4-2. Both teams have 9-0 records in nondivision games that do not include the first division. In either case, at least one must have played the 14-2 teams from the first division and lost. as long as it isn't the 4-2 division record team. There is one remaining team in the first division that can be defeated by this team. Therefore, there is a division winner and a team that didn't win the division with 14+ wins.
Since there only 2 wildcard slots and 3 teams that have 14 wins and did not win their division, one of those teams will be outside looking in.

2. Three teams produce two 14+ win teams each.
I will not go through the argument, but the argument is similar to the one above.

[donnnyy]

In my madden franchise bills made it to the Super Bowl at 7-9....

[msolec]

This video calls for a dual video. What is the most wins that you can have and still not make the playoffs?

[jameskolan]

People are calling for changes in the NFL playoff system? News to me. Once in a while, there is an apparent injustice but most years the best six teams get in. The only time it could reasonably be called into question is if a division winner has fewer wins than a team that fails to make the cut as a wild-card team. The old NHL divisional system had a far greater potential for unjust situations.

[toddbiesel]

I know that it is possible for as many as four teams to go 16-0 in a season, depending on their divisions and conferences. There must be two AFC and two NFC teams, obviously no two of which can play one another.

[Cmackie]

The problem with how it is set up is that you get a playoff spot by being the best in your division. The point of your season is to first, win the division. The argument against allowing a 7-9 team, or if for some crazy reason 3-13 team in the playoffs is not a good one. They are all split up in divisions to make the competition between all of them increase. Example, you had the 6-10 Falcons and 7-8-1 Panthers play in Week 17 with the winner getting that division. That is what they always play for. Both Seattle(7-9) and Carolina(7-8-1) qualified for the playoffs with less wins than losses, and they won their opening round game against teams that were supposedly favorites all season long.

[shaochiavang]

What if every team that played in a season have a 0-0-16 record?

[Despondencymusic]

With the way the NFC LEast is going this year...🤣

[kevinducharme]

Interesting mathematical theorem, but then again, calling for a change in playoffs because of this extremely unlikely situation ever happen is absurd

(I mean the odds of this happening isas close as you can get to 0% without including a fraction so small it would be 50+ 0's followed by a 1 of a %)

[FlipFlopFlip]

So you mean The Browns almost always have a chance? I dont believe you

[sayanchakraborty]

Time Tested Calculations are truly fabulous!

[jacobgyo]

thanks for repeating the basics of nfl playoff structure and adding obvious answers. Sorry my expectations get to high thanks to Jon Bois. 🐐

[JJ-]

I am satisfied with the current playoff format. Nothing wrong with it in my opinion. Winning your division means a lot no matter of how bad that team is and that division.

[andrewcanavan]

This mans circle drawing skills are insane

[okrajoe]

I was told there would be no math except 6÷2(1+2)

[SeanMullaneyVideos]

I don’t understand why a team that didn’t win its division deserves to get in over a team that did win its division. The current NFL playoff format is fine.