The Gambler's Fallacy: The Basic Fallacy (1/6)

This video is the first in a six-part series on the Gambler’s Fallacy.

In this video I present the reasoning that leads to the Gambler’s Fallacy.

[battletoadsonmynes]

Great explanation thank you. You speak very well.

[kiriltsvetkov]

When using rolette simulator or cointoss simulator I noticed that I almost never get a series of 10/10 Heads or even numbers. So if I see 10 times H I will bet tails because the probability is on my side

[dodobird]

What is the difference between .5 times .5 times .5 … vs this?

[ellerellerek]

4:00 you'd win jack pot in a lottery 3 times in row faster than got coin landing 99 times on the same side in a row.

[aks]

Amazing and timeless video series, thanks

[TheaDragonSpirit]

2:02 - Could be like a snowball effect and could be heads another 1, 000 times, because it's 50/50 every time. It's not natural to assume everything balances out. It depends on the situation.

[einareinarsson]

There is one exception. For an exaple the sequence is red red black red black black and you double it ten times from an exaple 1 dollar to 51, 2. Or in dice with better odds 49, 5%, low low high low high high. Then you simulate 2-4 first attempts and if they miss you start on 1 dollar. Then it works.

[sisbrawny]

I understand. But suppose there's 1, 000, 000 coin tosses, and all land heads. Is there a factor or variable that determines the number of tosses for the pattern to change? Why is it incorrect to say that a coin can land on heads for infinity, if it's possible that heads can occur as many times as it does? Isn't the gambler's fallacy based on the _law of large numbers_, that says _eventually_ the pattern will change in their favour (that is if they bet on the opposite of what's been historically occurring)? What phenomenon is acting on the system that in a way that 'keeps it in check' to ensure that it is fair and maintains a 50/50 probability?

[kenwittlief]

have to step in and question the premise: IF I saw someone flip a quarter and it comes up heads 6 times in a row
my first inclination will be its a 2 headed coin, or the flipper has been practicing flipping a coin, like you can practice tossing a knife so it always lands on its point, or the flipper is a sleight of hand magician with a two headed quarter in one hand, and a normal quarter in the other....

because the odds of a coin coming up the same 6 times in a row is 1.56%

if you bet $100 on the coin flip coming up heads, and doubled down each time, you would win $6400 - 64 times your original bet

yes the odds of the next flip are still 50:50... unless the flipper is scamming you.

There is an investment scam based on this: you mail out 1000 letters to random people telling 500 of them a stock will go up this week, and the other 500 it will go down
based on the price of the stock next week you mail out 500, telling half it will go up next week, and half it will go down.
next week you mail out 250 letters
the next week you mail out 125 letters
and next week you mail out 62 letters to people who will believe you have predicted the price of the stock correctly for the last 5 weeks in a row, and many of them will promptly hand you their life savings to invest....

[sunalwaysshinesonTVs]

Wait... what's the probability of tossing heads 6 times in a row?

[BambiOnIce]

yes, its always 50 - 50.... I cannot understand why someone would think there is higher probability of heads or tails... and they call this Gambler's fallacy????

[yolinhoz]

lost 30 bucks while gambling because of this 😭

[einareinarsson]

You should go live to assure yoursel you not scammed. Even live may be pre-recorded. The sequence of simulating two miss on red red black red black black must have a stopbet and you stop at 25600 A bankroll of 500 000 is good. Itsnot proved at 10 000 spin but you have a good shot. Though if you want to win you have to combine 3 loosing systems to get profit as Parrodontos paradox. Tried this out on dice but to be sure fo online at roulette

[stephenkamenar]

Interesting tip: In real life, if you see 6 heads in a row, you should absolutely bet money on heads next time. If you don't, you're falling for what I'm calling "the pure mathematics fallacy"

Totally fair coins don't exist in real life, there's tons of variables, it's probably not exactly 50/50. 6 heads in a row tells you the coin's bias is more likely heads than tails