Adding Regressors to Facebook Prophet Forecasting Model

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Prophet is a procedure for forecasting time series data based on an additive model where non-linear trends are fit with yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality, plus holiday effects. It works best with time series that have strong seasonal effects and several seasons of historical data. Prophet is robust to missing data and shifts in the trend, and typically handles outliers well.

The video focuses on how to add a regressor to the Prophet Model.

Intro (0:00)
Get Data (0:48)
Load Data (1:38)
Create NFL Sunday function (2:15)
Applying function (5:10)
Create Prophet with Regressors (5:53)
Create Future Dataframe (7:17)
Forecasting (8:55)
Plotting (9:16)
Outro (10:57)
  1. Data Heroes
  2. time series forecasting
  3. data science
  4. time series forecasting machine learning
  5. time series analysis
  6. facebook prophet
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Комментарии
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this is the 1st tutorial I found that explains the future df in a clear and easy manner.

kanrongyu
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Hi I have found you videos super helpful, is there any chance you could upload a video on how to add other variables e.g. weather coniditions as a regressor in Facebook prophet?

hollyhouliston
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Hi, thanks for uploading this video, it's super useful! I have a question about binary additional regressors like "is_promotion" (if yes=1, if no=0). I tried with a monthly sales time series where the positive effect of the promotion was very clear in the past data, so when I added a similar promotion in one of months of the future dataframe (using a regressor like the example you showed), the forecast effectively increased the sales in that month because there was a similar event in the past. My doubt is how do you specify the impact of the external regressor if the promotion was never done in the past and you want to do it in the future? How can prophet know that the binary regressor implies an increase in sales if the promotion was never done before? I can't seem to find this information online. Thanks again.

andresfernandezfavret