What happens if you guess - Leigh Nataro

Will it rain tomorrow? How likely is your favorite team to win the Super Bowl? Questions like these are answered through the mathematics of probability. Watch this artistic visualization of your odds of passing a test if you don't know any of the answers.

Lesson by Leigh Nataro, animation by Matthew Saunders.

[DRiungi]

cool, basic statistics. though i hoped it would be about the neuroscience of guessing.

[irisho]

Likewise, the probability of getting a 0 on a 10 question quiz by guessing is 1/1024

[TheJuniorApollo]

So you're saying there's a chance

[BlckDrgn]

Mom, please take a seat. I will explain why I didn't pass my exam :)

[theMifyoo]

I had a friend who guessed on a multiple choice C++ quiz for a National competition, I think it was for a National Business professional competition or something of that nature. We were required to compete in a number of competitions but our grade wasn't related to the results. So he chose the quiz for the ease, and just guessed, A on the first, B on the second, C on the third, and D on the fourth, and than repeated the cycle. He ended up getting into the state wide level of the competition by accident.

[nomarydgrauwolf]

Every time I hear your intro I feel like getting smarter

[Markus]

Humans don't randomly guess. We have a very specific pattern in guessing.

[jp]

Ted Ed: what happens when you guess?

Me: I have no idea but I'll take a guess at it

[vinteote]

i'm a bit dissapointed as i expected neuroscience, not probability i learned in primary school.

[Zretar]

I think this video is just right.
Education is three steps:
Learning, Review and Implementing.
The human mind works by connections, and every time you meet and remember one of your lessons, you make new ones and fix old ones.
You may know it already, many people might, but hey, the more times you hear good information, the less you will forget it.

[Mato]

The probability that this video could tell us the same thing in half the time is 100%.

[EL-ISS]

You do realize that these videos are for nearly every age, I showed my little sister this and shes only four so that it would help out in the long run. I show her things like this all the time to get her ready for the future and she finds them interesting. Just because a video contains something you already know doesn't mean it's worthless, it has a point and that point is to teach.

[connorking]

...and 1 in 95 trillion is, for all intents and purposes, 0

[NocturnalCoder]

One of my back-bencher classmate scored 19 out 20 in a MCQ exam, all by guessing.
And there was 4 options in each question to choose the right one.

In math, the probability of this was one in 275 billions!

[chitwankogaida]

Lesson to learn is if you have 1 question that you don't know the answer of, its really good idea to guess one than just leave blank as the probability of getting only one question correct is much higher than getting multiple questions correct by guessing. I have seen many students leave it blank when they don't know the answer.

[KobeBLakers]

These educational videos are taking away from my education!! but I love them!

[mathteacher]

Random success on an individual question is 1 in 5^1. The probability of being successful on two questions is 1 in 5^2. The probability of being successful on three questions is 1 in 5^3. And so on. There is a pattern here. To be successful on all 10 questions is 1 in 5^10. Really, really small. In fact, the probability of being struck by lightening is greater at about 1 in 600, 000. Much greater than the probability of getting all 10 questions right by randomly guessing.

[cloroxbleach]

I knew it 1024!!! But I thought it was about how our brain guesses

[dark-ambition]

Damn, I've got a pretty good record on randomly guessing on 10 question quizzes will 4 answers and getting good scores. Using the FCP, the number of outcomes for these types of tests are: 1, 048, 576 chancess of passing are very low. Basically what I'm saying is that I have the luck of Master Chief.

[marsh]

5:12 it's supposed to be 95, 367, 431, 640, 625. Wonder how they screwed that up