How the 2024 Presidential Candidates Could Reshape South Florida’s Housing Market

2024 Presidential Candidates and the South Florida Housing Market
Source: "What Harris, Trump offer Miami real estate, housing market | Miami Herald" by Rebecca San Juan, November 4, 2024

Main Themes:

Differing approaches to the national housing crisis: This article compares the housing policies of presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and their potential impact on the South Florida real estate market. Impact on South Florida: Experts believe both candidates' policies will have distinct consequences for affordability, luxury market activity, and overall market stability in the region. Focus on affordability vs. deregulation: Harris emphasizes affordability through initiatives for first-time homebuyers and increased housing development. Trump leans towards deregulation, tax benefits for the wealthy, and freeing federal land for development.

Key Proposals and Expert Opinions:

Kamala Harris:

$40 billion Housing Innovation Fund: Aimed at supporting affordable housing development. Expert Ned Murray believes this would significantly benefit South Florida, stating, "My thinking has always been you need to build incentives to always build. South Florida would be the primary beneficiary of these housing programs." Downpayment assistance: $25,000 for first-time homebuyers. While potentially beneficial for affordability, expert Jonathan Miller cautions that sellers might inflate prices in response. Capital gains tax increase: Aimed at earners over $1 million, potentially impacting the luxury market. Senada Adžem predicts decreased activity as "ultra luxury buyers and sellers make a lot of their real estate decisions based on taxes." Donald Trump:

Tariffs: Proposed tariffs on Chinese and other imports could raise construction costs and ultimately increase housing prices, according to Miller. "Widespread tariffs around the economy is highly inflationary. That would likely drive mortgage rates up."
Free federal land for housing: While potentially increasing inventory, Murray expresses concern about environmental impacts, stating, "You would want to protect federal land, especially in Florida. That’s the last thing you want to do." Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac privatization: Could lead to increased competition but also risk and higher mortgage rates, potentially harming middle-class buyers according to Adžem. Tax benefits for corporations and wealthy households: Could stimulate the luxury market with increased disposable income. Miller notes, "He wants to reduce taxes with the higher-end wage earners, which is helpful for the higher end luxury market in South Florida."
Overall:

The article suggests that Harris's policies may benefit first-time buyers and promote affordability, while potentially slowing activity in the luxury market. Trump's policies, focused on deregulation and tax benefits for the wealthy, may stimulate luxury market activity but raise concerns about affordability and environmental impact. Experts agree that South Florida's strong real estate market will likely remain robust regardless of the election outcome.