How High Can Nvidia's Stock Soar?

Why I'm STILL Not Investing in NVIDIA ... Nvidia stock analysis / NVDA

The “Magnificent Seven” seems to be turning into the “Magnificent One” as Nvidia added almost $500 billion in market cap in just 3 days after their most recent earnings results. To put this into context, if you exclude Nvidia from the Magnificent 7, it would be trailing the S&P 500 YTD. As a result, stock market concentration in the US is at levels not seen since 1932, almost 100 years ago. Moreover, consider this: gaining $500 billion in market cap is equivalent to adding one UnitedHealth Group. Nvidia got all that market cap and more in just three trading sessions. So what should investors make of all of this? What I can tell you is that to me it seems like all investors want to hear about Nvidia’s stock right now is how it's the future and changing the world and how Nvidia / NVDA will keep outperforming the market forever. In this video, I’m going to share a non-mainstream take and share two approaches to value Nvidia's stock.

*DO YOU WANT TO GET MENTORED BY ME?*

I've developed a value investing mentoring program, in which you will learn everything from basic personal finance concepts such as ...
✔️ goal setting
✔️ developing a "rich mindset"
✔️ dealing with debt
✔️ big life expenses
✔️ investing 101 ...

... to more advanced topics like ...
✔️ how to read and work with financial statements
✔️ competitive advantage analysis
✔️ assessing the quality of management teams
✔️ valuation methods
✔️ behavioral finance ...

and MUCH MORE!

*GET IN TOUCH:*

WATCH NEXT:
○ The S&P 500: Your Ticket to FREEDOM? (How to Invest in 2023)

MUSIC:

DISCLAIMER:
The content provided on this channel should be considered an educational resource and should not be construed as individualized investment advice, nor as a recommendation to buy or sell specific securities. The stocks and funds discussed on this channel are examples only and may not be appropriate for your individual circumstances.

Before making any financial or investment decisions, I recommend you consult a financial planner or advisor to take into account your personal investment objectives, financial situation, and individual needs.

In no event shall René Sellmann be liable to any viewer for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content published on this channel, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages.

I hope you enjoyed the content!

Is Nvidia overvalued or will Nvidia keep outperforming the market in 2024?

[louisking]

All i can say is that I bought it at around $430, after the last year drop.
It has been on my radar for quite a bit, after studying their balance sheet and their story.
I am not a perma bull on this, but I have to acknoledge that they have something more than their competitors.

The true strenght of the company is that they are always ahead of competition.
As soon as competitors try to catch up, that trend is already on slowing growth/compressing margins (compare NVDA/AMD/INTC margins over time). By that time NVDA has moved to something else and filled a new niche, which has high potential.

It has already happened so many times: GPUs for consoles, GPUs for gaming, GPUs for crypto mining, Datacenters, AI exc exc.

This uptrend will finish soon and it will inevitably revert back to the mean (when either the revenues won't grow as fast or FOMO is gone).
At this price it's not a good investment indeed, it would be speculation to buy it now.

All I can say, it's that I am proud of owning a share of this amazing business.

[TB-X]

Great episode…it brought me back down to earth. Subscribed.

* As of 06/14/2024, Charles Schwab rates NVDA a “C” (Hold) on a A-F scale.

* Morningstar rates it 3 of 5 stars.

* CFRA rates it a 4 of 5 star “Buy”.

* Argus gives it a Sector rating of “Outperform”, a twelve month rating of “Buy”, and a 5 year rating of “Buy”.

I tend for whatever reason to give most credibility to Charles Schwab’s analysis rating of “C” (Hold), but I have a bit of FOMO, so I’m simply using dollar cost averaging and buying a little each month because I’m in this for 10+ years.

Which of these sources do you trust the most and is anyone else using dollar cost averaging?

[mircea_h]

Great video ! subscribed :)

So the first guy, sees nvidia at a 20x PE in 6 years ? was nvidia ever this cheap ? is any of the faangs this cheap (netflix is 44pe) ? even the ones not growing but actually shrinking revenues are +30 pe

in your evaluation you see 200b revenue and 30pe, where the first guy said 240b and 20pe. why not bull case of 240b and 30 pe ?

even if nvidia starts to slow down, it will not 50% drop, it will just grow slower as revenue grows, so pe will compress naturally

i feel optimistic about the market of AI. military, countries / sovereign ai, healthcare, any engineering business, these are all huge markets. they do not compare to apple iphones/macs market or even google market. Maybe they are comparable to microsoft as it is part of most businesses, but ai can be much more. if AI takes off, nividia should be few times apple

google is bragging about it's ai discovering new proteins chemicals, bringing down costs of new drugs as ai can much better validate compatibility of chemicals.

no billions profits from AI yet, I agree, but it feels like its closer and closer

[AndrewLetendre]

It's 25x forward P/S and currently a +50% operating margin. To even justify the price today, one would have to assume margins expand AND sales continue to double. Sales will most certainly continue to grow. But to what size and when does that demand fall off? When the bottleneck is gone, where do margins settle to? The party can go for a while, but the business would still have to look optically better than a SaaS company in the future.

(I'm commenting before watching, so you might cover this haha)

[ryanchinh]

Nvidia is too risky I miss out 3000% gains in 3 years. 😂😂

[QuantCompounding]

I’m a simple guy. I see a 70+ earnings multiple. I see a shareholder yield of 0.07%. 2/3 engines working against $NVDA. How much earnings growth does this thing need to make this a worthy investment? It must be a high number. Pass

[hansschmidt]

It is expensive but didn‘t they report 260% revenue growth in the last ER? I think the party will last for a while, currently it is almost a monopoly and they can‘t produce fast enough to serve the demand. I wouldn‘t buy it now but bought dips in February and April, the position is up 60% and I will keep it at the moment, possibly trim it and take some profits depending on where it goes.
I owned it before and sold with a ridiculous profit, it was a mistake and I was influenced by an army of value investors on yt who have been telling for years that the stock is way too expensive 😅