Modeling Perceptions of the Variability of Ecosystem Services in the Dolores River Watershed

In the United States’ Colorado River Basin, one year’s relative abundance of available water rarely predicts the following year’s. Annual variability complicates transboundary planning, management, and the allocation of vital water resources, and is further complicated by uncertainty regarding climate change projections. As multiple, dynamic pressures alter this complex social-ecological system, individual stakeholders make sense of these changes and form situated, context-dependent mental models of the variability of ecosystem services afforded. The purpose of this research was to characterize stakeholder mental models of ecosystem services afforded in one tributary of the Colorado River: the Dolores River, draining the western aspects of the San Juan mountains before snaking approximately 241 miles through sandstone plateaus, before joining the Colorado River near Moab, Utah. We assessed how climate-induced variability of flows alter mental models as well as stakeholder perspectives of the future of Dolores River Watershed in a changing climate. Using semi-structured interviews guided by an inventory of provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural ecosystem services (Brown, Montag, & Lyon, 2012), we assessed stakeholders’ (n = 40) mental models for variable ecosystem services in the Dolores River Watershed. Preliminary findings indicate vulnerability to climate change of water resources, the increased value ascribed to cultural services (i.e., recreation) during low and high-water years due to scarcity, and the political prominence of provisioning services. Improvement to the allocation of supporting services (i.e. habitat) is in part dependent on aligning ecosystem management with flow regimes through collaborative management on a multiyear scale. These findings help to assess the prioritization of specific ecosystem services through water policy and the various impacts on multiple regional stakeholders, specifically those in the outdoor recreation economy.

Thank you to Old Dominion University, the University of Utah and the Bonderman Field Station at Rio Mesa for making this research opportunity possible.