What These 3 Recession Indicators Say About The U.S. Economy

We discuss three key recession indicators and the mixed signals they're currently sending about the economy. First, we dive into the SAHM rule, a straightforward measure based on unemployment rates. Then, we examine the inverted yield curve, which recently reverted to normal after a long period of inversion. Finally, we look at the technical definition of a recession—two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Despite the data pointing in different directions, our main takeaway is to stay focused on saving money, investing wisely, and not getting caught up in short-term market fluctuations.

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[growingwealth]

Correction: The yeild curve is still inverted. It uninverted briefly during the day Monday but remains inverted. Please note this mistake.

[becfree]

Hi, investment analyst here. You did a good job at this video 👍 Impressed you meantion the Sahm rule. Worth noting that it might not be as reliable this time round due to higher immigration and covid affecting the 12 month 3 month moving average low.

[GUYE-FAWKES]

Just a slight correction Paul, I'm sure its a slip of tongue, but the Sahm rule wasn't designed by a guy, it was provided by Claudia Sahm who used to work for the Federal Reserve. I only know this because I watched The Compound yesterday and she was on. lol. Love the process. Its why i'm here.

[brandonschlabach]

Great video. Love the realistic approach you take to these videos vs focusing on hype/fear for clicks.

[brutebiz]

I really enjoy these educational videos. Just subscribed.

[Jim-uc]

when I went to college (1968), the econo class said that 4.5% was a good/average unemployment rate was good.

[adventuresoflucydtakeonthe]

Claudia Sahm - “Sahm rule” she’s a former federal reserve economist.

[FabiWann]

The chart is misleading because they changed the way unemployment rate was measured (before 1990 if I'm not mistaken). You must look at the U6, not only at the U3.

[j]

My assumption is the Nasdaq will drop under 20% over the next few months..

[Cosmo]

I seen red and bought up I’m sad it’s whent back up

[tenpattt]

I’m not following twitter I do following you X 😂🎉

[hipanderos]

Meetkevin has sold almost all his stock. He nailed it once again, he talked about crash 11.7.

[michaelpark]

would u say zoom is a value stock now?

[Optimised]

Can you teach us how to carry trade and fcuk up the global stock market?

[benwoodhead]

I believe it was Claudia Sahm that created it

[ambiven]

I mean if it was recession, I would have liked if the market was lower today so that i could buy more lol