2024 Election Night Prediction | Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris

In this simulation of Election Night in America 2024, I project how the race to 270 electoral votes unfolds between the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, and the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.
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Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing non-partisan political channel on YouTube, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. My official 2020 Presidential Election Forecast correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states. My 2022 Senate Forecast accurately projected the winners in 33 of 34 races.
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This channel is run solely by Ryan Gest, a student at The George Washington University's School of Media and Public Affairs, and an elections data science fellow at Decision Desk HQ.
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[donamills]

I don't understand how third world countries get their results the day of the election but we can't

[mkh]

if the decrease in support from black voters is true for Harris, Trump will win Georgia by 3-4 points

[ericlane]

It's gonna be an interesting election if the blue wall actually does vote differently from one another. Also, if Trump wins Wisconsin, he doesn't even need PA to win. Just Arizona and Alaska.

[dadodadusko]

5:29 7 pm poll closing
5:40 Indiana
5:55 Kentucky
6:00 South Carolina
6:07 Vermont
9:42 7:30 pm poll closing
9:49 West Virginia
12:28 8 pm poll closing
12:35 Illinois
12:47 New Jersey
12:53 Massachusetts
12:59 Maryland
13:06 Connecticut
13:16 Rhode Island
13:24 Delaware
13:32 DC
13:41 Maine CD-01
13:55 Tennessee
14:04 Missouri
14:09 Alabama
14:18 Oklahoma
14:27 Mississippi
18:31 Florida
21:21 8:30 pm polls closing
21:25 Arkansas
23:01 Ohio
25:54 9 pm polls closing
25:58 New York
26:18 Louisiana
26:26 Kansas
26:33 Nebraska
26:51 North Dakota
26:56 South Dakota
27:03 Wyoming
31:30 Colorado
33:38 Virginia
34:18 Iowa
36:12 New Hampshire
36:50 New Mexico
38:12 10 pm polls closing
38:18 Utah
38:25 Montana
40:49 Texas
42:20 North Carolina
45:16 11 pm polls closing
45:21 California
45:37 Washington
45:48 Oregon
46:00 Idaho
47:36 Georgia
49:47 Minnesota
50:31 Nebraska CD-2
52:36 12 am polls closing
52:45 Hawaii
54:12 Maine
54:59 Maine CD-2
55:37 Wisconsin
57:47 Alaska
59:06 Michigan
1:00:52 Trump elected president
1:01:21 Pennsylvania
1:03:03 Arizona
1:04:41 Nevada

[jw]

Scott Pressler has been in it to win it in Pennsylvania! He puts in the work because the last four years have been so

[melissareece]

As a Californian, I hate how we have so many electoral votes. I feel like they could run Beavis and Butthead on the blue ticket and these pendejas would still vote for them...then whine and complain how they cant afford their lives.

[polpolik]

As a non American who is very into world politics, these videos give me the same vibes as the real election night. Awesome video!

[rhettshanley]

If Harris loses does that mean she has to certify her own lose?

[Rick-hxfo]

I think you’re underestimating Trump in this mock up. Based on the cross tabs of polling of Michigan and the fact that Kamala is much less popular than Hillary was in 2016 I believe Trump will carry Michigan and has a good shot in Nevada. I believe the margins of victory in many states will increase in favor Trump since Kamala continues to undeperform Biden from 2020.

[MikehMike]

Trump did significantly better than even this positive projection

[FaithROK]

Asian American voter from Virginia. All my friends and many in our community voted for Biden in 2020. Most of us voted for Trump already this time. YOUNGKIN winning 2021 changed many of our minds and Kamala just looks like Biden for next four years so no way.

[d]

The people in Michigan are tired of this administration

[anonymous-oddo]

New York for Trump. He took a bullet for us.

[clownworld]

Taking longer than 2 days to count the vote should be illegal.

[tylerandreasen]

1:01:06 In case you don’t know, the first president to serve two non-consecutive office terms was Grover Cleveland who won the election back in 1892.

[Fantech]

Nicely done! With current polling, Michigan actually looks like it's on it's way for going to Trump. Regardless, a 297 electoral vote victory for Trump is very realistic. One of the three rustbelts is all Trump needs. However, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are definitely the most likely ones going for Trump. But Michigan isn't looking that great for Kamala right now. I sure hope it doesn't take over 36 hours to count all of the votes in unlike in 2020 where Pennsylvania took over 80 hours to count!

[Uprightfossil]

Arizona for Trump 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸. Why would true Americans vote for dumb and dumber ????

[kcx]

Michigan will go Trump. I'm calling it.

[singletonjays]

I think Trump will achieve over 300 electoral votes

[somarajubuddharaju]

PA, he is completely wrong and I live in Philadelphia suburbs here all I see Trump support.