BREAKING: Elon Musk 'FSD’s About to 10X!!!'

Elon says Tesla FSD is about to get a WHOLE lot better, it's coming to Cybertruck soon, and this means Optimus will improve too! What a series of x posts!

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Sources:

[flattire]

12.3.6 is great in my Model 3LR. It has passed the "wife test." Can't wait for 12.4 and beyond. Older drivers will become very reliant on FSD in the future.

[slowercuber]

The day FSD can legally and safely drive me across the USA on the highway while I nap, is the day I'll be ready to (te)slap an $8K USD charge onto my credit card.

[carjic]

On v12.3.6 I have been using it every drive since I got it. Only problems until yesterday were getting in the wrong lane. In other words if one lane turns into a turn only lane and you need to go straight it will pick the wrong lane 60% of the time so I just turn it off. But yesterday every time I had a left turn it either got in the wrong land on the turn. One time on a busy intersection and a left turn it just stopped and blocked traffic so I had to take over. It also was in the right lane and someone was turning right but I was going straight and it came very close to hitting the car before I hit the brake. I am a hugh fan of FSD and it has been workiing great but yesterday was going a few steps back. This is San Antonio Texas by the way.

[vermontsownboy]

My area (Northern New England) require daily drives on incredibly challenging dirt mountain back roads. Think gravel, steep, loose and changing gravel shoulders, blind corners, short horizon lines, potholes potholes potholes, etc. FSD has made incredible progress in the past 45 days, going from (v12.3.4) literally 25-30 interventions in a 10 mile drive to town (yes, really), to maybe 1-2 interventions in the same drive (v12.3.6). Known FSD failure points still exist, but the progress is obvious.

[sandybayes]

Glad you explained the stacking of 11 and 12. Thanks!

[michaellatta]

I have only had 5 safety interventions in the last year (6k miles). And around 4 where I tool over around emergency vehicles.

[healthDOTorg]

Remember when Tim "The Toolman" Taylor would grunt his trademark "Huuuhhh?" Well, when the gen pop does that in response to the announcement that Teslas can now drive them around autonomously, that's the CHAT GPT Moment.

[ByronBennett]

Wow! 17, 000 miles between critical interventions for Waymo is incredible. If that's the bar, and Tesla is at 300 miles, then Tesla needs a 50X improvement to catch up to Waymo. Thankfully, the improvement curve is parabolic and not straight-line, otherwise, it'd be 500 years. Hopefully, just 5 months instead, but still, 50X is a big number.

[johnlynch]

I am looking forward to hearing about the first coast to coast FSD drive. Where the car backs into a charging stall

[peterhoy]

... just an aside ... I spotted my first Model 3 Highland version on the road in SW Florida yesterday going the opposite direction. Excited.

[axemand]

Is it about to 10x in about a year? Maybe a year & 3 months but DEFINITELY next year? Definitely? Full self driving is DEFINITELY coming soon and it will be amazing! Soon. Definitely.

[randalexander]

Yep. iPhone moment as well. Remember how in a couple to few years all those Motorola RAZR and other flip phones totally disappeared? Cars scene is going to be so radically different in 3 to 5 years. People have NO IDEA.

[slowercuber]

5:00 Around where I live in Bessemer, AL, our roads are much simpler than the one's I'm familiar with in CA (mainly around San Diego), but those same "simpler" Alabama roads are also much crapier, with shoulderless narrow roads bordered by ditches, blind hills and turns and low hanging tree branches and people leaving their garbage cans on the edge of the street, etc. It seems that optimization for CA is not optimal for rural and some suburban AL, so I don't expect V12.4 or even V12.5 to get us here in the Heart of Dixie to what you see in Athens, Atlanta or CA.

[bobtag]

Hopefully, Elon is right about 12.4 seeing a 5x to 10x improvement in miles per intervention, I have driven FSD for 18 months now in my MYLR, and I still have not driven more than 20 miles without a safety-related intervention(s) in city and country roads in the Midwest, even with the latest FSD 12.3.6 I have made 5 trips to Florida and back, 2400 miles per trip, mostly interstate driving. No complete trip on the interstate driving was without multiple interventions for safety. FSD may be better on California roads, but still too many edge cases in the Midwest they need to solve before any robo taxi is ready for the public.

[Mpr]

I’ve got two really annoying 100% regressions in v12. One is a blind, unprotected left turn that v11 could muddle through but v12 can not even attempt and actually creeps the car out into the lane of travel, then disengages.
The other issue is V12 completely misses the exit off the interstate to my house. It has good nav planning and even signals for the exit, but fails to take the exit. It goes to the next exit, and comes back on the interstate from the other direction and has success from that direction.
Pretty frustrating new failures.

[tidusandjecht]

One thing I don’t like is how much it hugs the right side of the road. Probably due to seeing everyone drive like that, but I’d rather not look stupid on the road. That’s the only aspect I miss from the rigid FSD a few months ago

[georgehopkins]

This is very impressive regarding major reductions in interventions. But if say when it gets to 10, 000 or more intervention, what would happen in a robocab does require an intervention and who would intervene and who would resolve the intervention problem?

[slowercuber]

4:13 you had Ents (tree people) in your neighborhood!???? Cool!

[s.m.]

With my promo month of FSD I am hooked. I can “drive” from my home to a destination in another city and return without intervention. This is version 3.25.

[macrumpton]

I would be very skeptical of those Waymo numbers, because there are so many accounts of the cars getting stuck or lost. In any case, I don't think that comparing Tesla to Waymo as some kind of goal makes sense since they are not that great.