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Longview Conversations x Wolfgang Munchau: Is Europe Heading For Disaster (again)?
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In the eighth instalment of our ‘Longview Conversations With’ podcast, CEO Chris Watling delves into the economics and politics of the Euro Area with Wolfgang Munchau.
Wolfgang has been writing about the single currency since the late 1980s, before it was even established. From 2003 to 2020, Wolfgang was the European economic columnist, amongst other positions, at the Financial Times, as well as working for the New Statesman and DL News. Munchau now runs EuroIntelligence – a financial consultancy focused on the Euro area.
In prior podcasts we have discussed the bull and bear cases for China, de-dollarisation, ‘What might break’ given the significant Fed tightening, Kondratieff waves, global asset allocation, and commercial real estate. This episode now switches the focus to the key countries in the Eurozone.
Given the changing political landscape in the Netherlands (with Geert Wilders’ recent electoral surprise success) coupled with Germany’s recent budget problems (i.e. its black hole), the subject of this podcast is timely. In it, Munchau argues that another Eurozone crisis is inevitable, it’s simply a matter of time.
00:00 Intro
01:36 Eurozone & European Politics
03:10 Why and how the EU lost interest in the Euro
05:05 What makes the Eurozone more unstable
09:12 What solutions does the EU have?
11:45 Would other EU presidents have done the same as Draghi?
13:15 Germany's Budget Crisis Explained
14:59 The EU has been lucky and will see more accidents
18:12 Potential Upcoming Crises
18:28 Fiscal Crisis
21:30 Germany's Deficit
24:10 German Defence Spending
27:35 New Party in Germany
29:09 War in Ukraine
31:20 The sanctions did NOT work
33:12 The West will eventually push for a peace deal
34:52 Russia would be very close to Germany if they win
36:38 The future of the German economy
38:20 Why Germany was strong for 20 years
40:10 Germany's errors
44:20 Comparing Germany and China's car industries
47:33 Who Will Lead Europe?
48:14 Why Germany is irreplaceable
50:45 France's Economy
52:17 The EU is in a structural crisis
52:42 Immigration
53:58 When will the next EU debt crisis happen and how?
58:20 What’s Going On In France?
58:50 Will Le Pen become President?
1:00:22 Right-Wing populists are continuing to win support
1:02:10 Germany and France are diverging
1:04:10 Macron as a centrist was unique
1:05:40 The future of right-wing populists and the next EU election
#euro #germany #GeertWilders #netherlands #france #italy #WolfgangMunchau #AFD #pvv #economy
#cash #investing #investment #invest #war #world
#SP500 #stockmarket #equities #trading #swingtrading #NDX100 #macro #macroeconomics #sp500 #data #events #nasdaq #long #short #france #cac #ftse #europe #money #technology #tech #ai #artificialintelligence #productivity #equities #equity #cap #transformation #divergence #growth #nvidia #marvell #marvel #nasdaq #bubble #boom
Wolfgang has been writing about the single currency since the late 1980s, before it was even established. From 2003 to 2020, Wolfgang was the European economic columnist, amongst other positions, at the Financial Times, as well as working for the New Statesman and DL News. Munchau now runs EuroIntelligence – a financial consultancy focused on the Euro area.
In prior podcasts we have discussed the bull and bear cases for China, de-dollarisation, ‘What might break’ given the significant Fed tightening, Kondratieff waves, global asset allocation, and commercial real estate. This episode now switches the focus to the key countries in the Eurozone.
Given the changing political landscape in the Netherlands (with Geert Wilders’ recent electoral surprise success) coupled with Germany’s recent budget problems (i.e. its black hole), the subject of this podcast is timely. In it, Munchau argues that another Eurozone crisis is inevitable, it’s simply a matter of time.
00:00 Intro
01:36 Eurozone & European Politics
03:10 Why and how the EU lost interest in the Euro
05:05 What makes the Eurozone more unstable
09:12 What solutions does the EU have?
11:45 Would other EU presidents have done the same as Draghi?
13:15 Germany's Budget Crisis Explained
14:59 The EU has been lucky and will see more accidents
18:12 Potential Upcoming Crises
18:28 Fiscal Crisis
21:30 Germany's Deficit
24:10 German Defence Spending
27:35 New Party in Germany
29:09 War in Ukraine
31:20 The sanctions did NOT work
33:12 The West will eventually push for a peace deal
34:52 Russia would be very close to Germany if they win
36:38 The future of the German economy
38:20 Why Germany was strong for 20 years
40:10 Germany's errors
44:20 Comparing Germany and China's car industries
47:33 Who Will Lead Europe?
48:14 Why Germany is irreplaceable
50:45 France's Economy
52:17 The EU is in a structural crisis
52:42 Immigration
53:58 When will the next EU debt crisis happen and how?
58:20 What’s Going On In France?
58:50 Will Le Pen become President?
1:00:22 Right-Wing populists are continuing to win support
1:02:10 Germany and France are diverging
1:04:10 Macron as a centrist was unique
1:05:40 The future of right-wing populists and the next EU election
#euro #germany #GeertWilders #netherlands #france #italy #WolfgangMunchau #AFD #pvv #economy
#cash #investing #investment #invest #war #world
#SP500 #stockmarket #equities #trading #swingtrading #NDX100 #macro #macroeconomics #sp500 #data #events #nasdaq #long #short #france #cac #ftse #europe #money #technology #tech #ai #artificialintelligence #productivity #equities #equity #cap #transformation #divergence #growth #nvidia #marvell #marvel #nasdaq #bubble #boom
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