This Always Happens Right Before a Market Crash

TIMECODES
00:00 4 Crash Indicators: Introduction
00:26 #1 Euphoria and Fear of Missing Out
01:17 Real Estate Example (Great Financial Crisis)
02:13 Fear & Greed Index Explained
02:55 Social Media & Family “FOMO” Signs
03:16 #2 Illogical Valuations
04:48 Amazon’s Overvaluation in 2000
05:16 Possible AI Bubble
06:03 Palantir vs. AMD Example
07:01 Summing Up Illogical Valuations
07:23 #3 Monetary & Fiscal Policy Changes
07:56 End of 2021: Top Mark & Market Drawdown
09:08 Tracking M2 Money Supply
09:43 Why Policy Signals Matter
10:12 #4 “Idiots Getting Rich” Phenomenon
10:40 The Uber Driver / Dentist Test
11:24 Assessing the Market Today
11:51 Valuations, Rotations & Strategy
12:26 Inflationary Deleveraging Outlook
13:17 Government Debt & Currency Devaluation
13:36 Not All 4 Crash Indicators Are Present
14:19 “Bull Markets Climb a Wall of Worry”
15:07 Three Ways to Protect/Profit from a Crash
16:35 Taking Partial Profits & Holding

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My name is Joe Brown, and I'm a former stock broker who spent years advising the top 1% on how to manage their wealth. After making enough money to leave the corporate world behind, I turned my attention to teaching regular people financial strategies that exist outside the mainstream - things you'll never hear from your traditional fiancial advisor.

I am not a CPA, attorney, or licensed financial advisor and the information in these videos shall not be construed as tax, legal, or financial advice from a qualified perspective. Linked items may create a financial benefit for Heresy Financial.

[knockoutlightz]

Lots of talk of the market being inflated. Do u think there will be a recession or downturn anytime soon? I recently came into a sum of money. I bought a house and paid off half of it. The rest is neutrally geared and just ticks away in the background. I barely even think about it. I still have around 400K cash though and would love to turn that into as much as possible of course but I’m uncertain about my next steps… Do u think now is a good time to invest in stocks, or should I wait for a more favourable opportunity?!

[chrisadair]

The best indicator of a market crash is that I have recently started investing in the market. That said, It should happen sometime very soon, folks. I haven't been wrong in about 20 years 🤣

[ChamberlainFaye-iv]

Our economy is like a flailing fish, fighting for its life. The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.

[InterStellarr]

Do short-term stock price fluctuations matter for long-term investors? While re-allocating my 6-figure portfolio, how do i ensure consistent returns with these fluctuations?

[ghtdgjjlidv]

Looks like the market’s about to crash—why? Because I just invested $40k! If history repeats itself (and it always does for me), brace yourselves, folks. I haven’t been wrong in 20 years!😂😂😂

[andremodesto]

The four things that always precede market crashes are:
1. Extreme greed and fear of missing out;
2. Irrational valuations;
3. Monetary and fiscal policies changes; and
4. Idiots getting rich.

[SophieBennett-wk]

This refers to certain patterns or signals that some investors believe precede a market crash, such as extreme optimism, rising valuations, or rapid price increases.

[marcusmoonstein]

Truth. I've seen a few bubbles in my time and the biggest warning sign for me is number 2: irrational valuations. When you see a complete disconnect between the money an asset can realistically generate and what people are paying for it you know something is going to go wrong. Closely related to this the over-hype about the valuations. When people are justifying the ridiculous price of an asset by saying things like "it's the future" or "it can't go down" you know SHTF is happening soon.

[spotontheroad]

A thing I have noticed over the last 50years that always seems to precede a crash is that the top end classic car market experiences a rash of record sale prices just as the bottom end stalls. That has been happening for the last 12 months, which suggests another is imminent.

[vanmynguyen]

Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid economy crisis, and even pull it off easily in favorable conditions. Unequivocally, the collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich

[eleanorolivas]

The US economy is already in recession. Any rate cut will not ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, when the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 130k to a decent 532k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Laura Brockman, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[bgandjsco]

I've witnessed all of those bubbles, and the one thing you didn't mention was that in everyone there was no talking the people out of their convictions. The problem is that by the time the next Bubble inflates threre is a new batch of suckers and the old suckers have forgotten the past and buy in again

[judewarner]

In fact, although all these signs appear before a crash, the crash still comes at an unexpected moment and for a very specific and unexpected reason different every time; sometimes a new bubble vehicle... like cryptocoins. I'm 20% liquid at the moment. In Oct 2007 I went 100% liquid from 100% equities in May 2007. By April 2009, I was 100% back in equities with twice the portfolio from the same seed money.

[sumdude]

Banker, was doing work-outs starting in '06 and my case load kept going up but everyone kept saying how great things were. I kept thinking, I'm crazy, Fast Money, Bloomberg, Leman all telling us how wonderful it was. I had an appraiser in June of '08 or thereabouts out in Vegas who refused to take my Bank's money to do an appraisal because he'd couldn't tell me the value. Said everything was crashing out there, told the CEO who said the guy was an idiot. We found another appraiser. Couple of months later, you all know what happened. Everyday I keep waking up and checking the market and thinking to myself...how? This next time is going to be really bad.

[BlueInOrangeAgain]

Nice speaking skills man. Not too fast, not too slow. No annoying filler words (ummm, like, so like I said, ok now).
Very clear, easy to listen and follow.

[thetrain]

The problem is much of these signs have happened a lot already and still no crash. No one truly understands this stuff anymore.

[Radagast]

You are correct I've seen this cycle happen three times. This time I'm ready. No debt, savings steadily building up. I saw the signs of this in 2020 only question was how long for the pop. This time when all the leveraged fools are bleeding out I am going to be ready to buy the firesales.

[revrocks]

This is not only happening with AI stocks, the euphoria and FOMO is all over the crypto space. Even here on YouTube, crypto bros are live streaming while a particular crypto is pumping to an all time high, and people in the chat who have never invested in anything are jumping in thinking it’s going to keep going indefinitely. The next day they’re freaking out and asking why it’s going down and they’re losing money, because they’ve never looked at a chart or have any clue how markets work. They come to the sad realization that they bought at the all time high, and they’re sitting on a loss hoping it goes back up.

[KennedyVerbruggen]

Putting well-earned money into the stock market can't be over emphasised for first-time investors, unlike a bank where interest is sure thing! Well, basically times are uncertain, the market is out of control, and banks are gradually failing. I am working on a ballpark estimate of $5M for retirement, and I have a good 6-figure loaded up for this, could there be any opportunity for a boomer like me?

[mylesgray]

Here in Seattle we have 2 job markets in crisis. Software, and aerospace. These are key drivers to the US economy and they pay employees very well, but they have been laying off thousands for over a year and it’s only getting worse.