The Wide Boundary Impacts of AI with Daniel Schmachtenberger | TGS 132

(Conversation recorded on June 27th, 2024)

Show Summary:

Artificial intelligence has been advancing at a break-neck pace. Accompanying this is an almost frenzied optimism that AI will fix our most pressing global problems, particularly when it comes to the hype surrounding climate solutions.

In this episode, Daniel Schmachtenberger joins Nate to take a wide-boundary look at the true environmental risks embedded within the current promises of artificial intelligence. He demonstrates that the current trajectory of AI’s impact is headed towards ecological destruction, rather than restoration… an important narrative currently missing from the discourse surrounding AI at large.

What are the environmental implications of a tool with unbound computational capabilities aimed towards goals of relentless growth and extraction? How could artificial intelligence play into the themes of power and greed, intensifying inequalities and accelerating the fragmentation of society? What role could AI play under a different set of values and expectations for the future that are in service to the betterment of life?

About Daniel Schmactenberger:

Daniel Schmachtenberger is a founding member of The Consilience Project, aimed at improving public sensemaking and dialogue.

The throughline of his interests has to do with ways of improving the health and development of individuals and society, with a virtuous relationship between the two as a goal.

Towards these ends, Daniel has a particular interest in catastrophic and existential risk, with focuses on civilization collapse and institutional decay. His work also includes an analysis of progress narratives, collective action problems, and social organization theories. These themes are all connected through close study of the relevant domains in philosophy and science.

Read the Development in Progress Paper:

For Show Notes and More visit:

00:00:00 - Introduction
00:04:01 - AI's Potential Benefits for the Environment
00:09:53 - Public Perception of AI and the Environment
00:11:24 - AI in Defense and Surveillance
00:17:09 - Existential Risks and Motivations
00:18:51 - AI and the Environment: A Broader Impact
00:29:55 - Environmental Concern in the AI Space
00:36:46 - What This Be Stopped?
00:46:32 - Energy and Material Demands of AI
00:57:14 - Tech Solutions vs. Systemic Changes
01:13:48 - AI and Energy Limits
01:21:12 - AI and the Superorganism
01:27:35 - Targeted AI Campaigns
01:33:27 - Precautionary Principle
01:40:21 - Closing Thoughts

Music: Frontiers by Revo
Licensed through Music Vine
License ID: S549586-16003

[Jonah_Larkin]

This is the most important conversation happening today.

[citris]

I grew up watching television. I watched it for years and never saw anyone of this level of intelligence appear on it. Thank God for the Internet.

[timeenoughforart]

A 3 hour Schmachtenberger "frankly" should be a weekly event.

[magrooster]

“AI will help accelerate the conversion of the Earth towards capital”. That single statement captures the premise of this whole discussion perfectly.

[mistercohaagen]

"Jevons paradox" seems to be a side effect of Capitalism; where every new person needs to "earn a living" by contriving up with some kind of "bullshit job". As long as everyone's survival needs are convoluted and abstracted through this needlessly competitive market system, it will generate this constant overhead of waste that wouldn't otherwise be necessary if we were simply permitted to meet our survival requirements directly.

[bradbear]

Schmach talks are my fav! Our inability to acknowledge our dark side and overcome it combined with the lack of imagination to predict unintended consequences seem to be at the root of so many of societies big problems. It seems like we may be in a spiritual crisis but the materialists keep doubling down.

[nlewin]

Wow. I've probably watched more interviews and conversations on this subject than most people (certainly everyone that I know) and up until now have been recommending people listen to the likes of Mo Gawdat and Yuval Noah Harari for their accessible warnings about AI, but Daniel Schmachtenburger has just blown my head off here. I kept having to rest my brain. I'll be sharing this as widely as possible. It's by far the most consice explanation of what fate is facing the human race that I've heard to date.
Thank you both.

Nate,
Ok. This topic is a big one.
I had a bunch of difficult things to get through this week and used this conversation as a reward with time to think and absorb information. I tried to respond but it was repetitive thoughts so I deleted it all.
Let's try again today.

At some point we all need to decide we have enough. Years ago, before I found your channel, I revamped my own life and did a great simplification on my tiny scale. No... law change or geopolitical change or protest or divisive disruption required. I just chose it.

Some, not all!, things I chose to implement under the umbrella of 'deciding I have enough':

-I told everyone to stop buying me gifts, for every event in the year, all of them. It took a couple years of effort for people around me to respect that boundary. Keep it in the ground. Instead I ask for people's time and experiences with them together in person. I also do not buy 'gifts' for others, I give my time and experiences to people I care about.
-I buy nothing unless I need it. And everything I do buy I 'love', take care of and use it until I no longer can or it stops working.
-I scaled back my life to save for the future (vs spending the resources of the future via debt... as you have repeated and expanded on many times :) ).
-I am extremely mindful about what I do buy, where it comes from and I chose wisely. Global supply chain means nothing is environmentally friendly. However, I can chose to buy one thing once every 2-5 years vs buying something every month or week because it's trending on social. You can chose to not participate. If I can get something I need used I do.
-I changed my diet. Significantly cut down on meat proteins. No fast food. If I want something, I buy the ingredients and make it. I eat actual food every day, all the time. If it comes from the ground it is food... if it comes in a box prepackaged and processed it is not food. I am mindful about which continent it comes from... and so on.

I feel like these examples are enough to get the idea and thought process going. But all of the changes I implemented came from knowledge about what we are doing to our home and it's creatures and lined them up against my core values. Energetic value of money. These behaviour change examples, as simple as they are, take many conversations you've had into account and overlap challenges of today and how to put the breaks on what we are collectively doing.

If we decided we had enough all the mining in the world would not be profitable because we won't buy the thing anyways. Under all of this is individual purchase power on a giant scale. We are the drivers.

I am a person with access to a lot of people at my job. The end of this video was a call to action. My chosen response at this time is using my words with everyone I can and leading by example. On any topic they bring to the conversation table. Debate and challenging thoughts to encourage positive change is my jam! And under it is deep feelings and passion for what's left on this planet, people included, and sharing information about how what we do harms it. To get people to change requires challenging their perspective on reality and behaviour impact, getting to why do you think the things we do on a giant social scale are positive? We don't live in a world where one person does one thing. We live in a world where one thing has a demand of millions of people. We can slow that down. Reassess the needs vs want vs what's really important to us HONESTLY and actually apply that shift real time into behaviours.

We talk about values and culture shift ... ok ... let's get some ownership going. Once you know the impact of what you do... you can change. It's my little mission to challenge behaviours in terms of what people tell me their values are and how what they do is in conflict with them. One of my fav lines comes from an unexpected source, a DMX quote, 'Talk is cheap mother ...' what are you willing to DO. I use it all the time lol. Yeah... I'm not everyone's favourite person sometimes and that's ok.

What are we all willing to do? What are we all willing to change and sacrifice :)?

I know the world is big. And there are a lot of countries who strive for the abundance we have. There is demand for all of the things discussed here on a global scale. Every country wants access to anything that will help them... of course! But we gotta start somewhere.

I chose to start with me and those in my orbit.

I appreciate it very much you have military minds involved in your tapestry. It's my experience that people involved in the military have a more accurate global perspective than the average person. Because they are the people on the ground sacrificing to keep this giant system going status quo. They know what it costs and see the underbelly of our system. And they know the risks because they've seen it, lived it and know the direction military teck is going.

Yeah... every single topic and guest is connected. Daniel is right, it is hard to find one location connecting all the dots and as I've said I am thankful you've done this and are doing it the way you are. I spent I don't even know how much time learning about all the topics you present individually and mapped it together. You are handing it to people who don't have that kind of time or will to invest.

What are we willing to change once we see the bigger picture for what it is. What personal accountability are we willing to own and correct. It's difficult to strip away all the bombardment we are faced with every day all the time. But if I can plant one thought or one perspective change into someone's reasoning or decision making rationale I take it as a win.

Excelsior, Andréa.

[anthonytroia]

I've gathered Daniel is not* a Luddite or a transhumanist. I'm also aware that his primary niche in the world is forecasting x-risk, therefore, by default he must converse primarily* about shit he doesn't want to happen (risks). So I am left wondering: "What does* Daniel want?" What does Schmachtenberger hold as a best-case scenario? What does the perfect constellation of responses portend?  This is a vital question to the survival of life on Earth.
Premodern civilizations were coordinated by an array of highly galvanizing narratives (Abrahamic religions,  Hinduism, Buddhism, etc....) with clear objectives. Modernity had it's unique galvanizing narratives (science, capitalism, consumerism, communism, etc...) with clear objectives. While we still look towards these narratives for guidance their coordinating capacity has been largely outstripped.  Our stories have atrophied.  
We need a new coordinating narrative NOW*.  In the wake of articulating what is most important a new narrative may emerge.  Hence, asking folks as intelligent and wise* as Daniel "What do we want to want? What do we want to become?" is paramount.  This is a global conversation whose time has come.

[mattvm]

The Daniel episodes are dharmic nourishment for my soul...to understand the world and act and love more deeply.

[TennesseeJed]

Daniel always makes my thinking machine work hard.

[jenniferl]

Daniels thought processes make total sense, and we all feel this intuitively.
Daniel identifies the main, high level missing ingredient currently is generosity. The winners have to (want to) be generous to the losers.

As Nate would say, that requires societal change.

So let’s all start encouraging - through practising - being thoughtfully generous whenever we have a win.

A great place to start may be through random acts of kindness.
Add some intellectual rigour when possible and we just may make it.

Thank you fellas 🙏

[Kqiros]

This is the Daniel-Nate conversation I’ve been waiting for

[goodnatureart]

"Our original instructions are to listem to the cloud floating by and the wind blowing by. That's poetry and prose in English, but it is "wakahan' in the Lakotan language. It means to consciously apply a mystery to everything. Everything is alive and has its own consciousness."

Tiokasin Ghosthorse, Lakota elder

"Sp many indigenous people have said to me that the fundamental difference between Western and indigenous ways of being is that even the most open-minded westerners generally view listening to the natural world as a metaphor, as opposed to the way the world really is. Trees and rocks really do have things to say to us."

Derrick Jensen

[treefrog]

While listening to Daniel Schmachtenberger's assessment of the our current AI environment I found myself recalling Mickey Mouse and the "Sorcerer's Apprentice" cartoon. A little bit of knowledge, coupled with a smattering of innocent naiveté, and a huge amount of hubris led to a shocking outcome for poor Mickey. I sometimes wonder if homo sapiens are a morality-tale-in-the- making that no one will ever hear?

[sitiernst]

The you so much for your efforts Nate and Daniel. The most important conversation of our time.

[edwardgarrity]

"Ubiquitous Technological Surveillance" is mentioned in the video starting at 38:33. The "Visible Light Spectrum" should be called the "Human-Visible Light Spectrum" (380 to 700 nanometers). If humans could see microwaves they could see through walls. Microwave cameras do exist and they can see through walls. They convert the Microwave wavelengths into the very narrow band of wavelengths that humans can see. Humans are tool-using and tool-making generalists. Any material, or thought, that can be turned into a "useful" tool will be. This is not limited to tools that do good things. It includes tools that do bad things; or tools that society or government or slices of government decided are necessary, whether deemed good or bad depending on viewpoint. The millimeter wave RBIT (Remote Biometric Identification and Tracking) system developed by the Argonne National Laboratory, and similar systems, might be examples of this.

[unmoving]

Thank you Nate for adressing the pit in your stomach and having Daniel reflect a little. It makes me feel 'not alone' in this horrific experience.

[johnflatberg]

A deep bow to you both Nate and Daniel--thank you for this hard to watch podcast. I had that same feeling in the pit of my stomach at about the same time as Nate did and I have been exposed to X-Risk and this space for a long time.
Indeed, dreaming about waterfalls and children playing; why else would we care and hold this space and take the heroes journey. The sci-fi book that this conversation reminded me of was Frank Herbert's Dune series and the Buttlerian Jihad, where after decades long battles with cyborgs humanity outlawed thinking machines. And yes Nate, the people of the Shire might just have a thing or two to contribute, (that brought a tear to my eye) so thank you for staying true and helping to help us envision the world we all want to live in.

[mattmackay]

Another beautiful conversation with Mr. Schmachtenberger. I have felt a lot of pain in my life with abuse, chronic health issues but i learned how to heal. I love that healed people can help heal people and hurt people hurt people. There is such truth in that. Some people have the gift of sight, Daniel is one of those people.