Sergei Guriev on The Implications of Sanctions on the Russian Economy

On Thursday, March 3, Sergei Guriev joined Markus’ Academy for a lecture on The Implications of of Sanctions on the Russian Economy. Guriev is a Professor at Sciences Po and formerly the Chief Economist at the EBRD and Rector of Moscow’s New Economic School. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.

Timestamps
[0:00] Introductory Remarks
[11:36] Pre-war economic outlook
[18:22] Real GDP and household incomes
[19:09] Russia vs. other EMEs
[20:10] Putin’s approval ratings
[21:26] 2014 sanctions
[23:34] 2022 sanctions
[28:52] Short- and long-run impact of sanctions
[34:21] Russian CDS spreads
[34:57] Economic outlook
[41:29] Political outlook
[42:26] Open questions
[47:49] Q&A

[mscommerce]

This is superb, and a considerable public service at a time like this, of war and confusion.

[DanKrishtal]

5:35 I'm not sure, if it is correct. There is an electronic wallet "Troika", which can be used to pay for any public transport in Moscow. No cash is needed. Most people use this E-wallet. And also, the majority of turnstiles in moscow metro doesn't accept google pay or apple pay as a payment method.

[iamthereforeistrive]

А вы знали, что Сергей Гуриев-представитель Young Global Leaders от Клауса со Шваброй?

[semidemiurge]

Excellent and very informative conversation.

Isn't a problem with crypto that in order to sell your crypto, somehow has to buy it and transfer the currency to you. That requires a bank transfer, which is blocked by the sanctions. Depending on the bank you use of of course.

[jeanque]

Guriev is a very handsome, brilliant, intelligent man

[jamesstmanhattan]

The country's done for, all the major businesses/corporations have pulled their operations out of the country, the currency has tanked, and the worst part of the collapse of the currency is yet to come, wait until the markets open and the currency collapses for good, as of now, the collapse of the currency hasn't even begun, the markets haven't priced it in yet, what they've had so far shall pale in comparison to what's in store for them.

The unemployment is bound to skyrocket, and crime will follow (as it always does), in no time at all they will find themselves living in a North Korea-type environment, with no prospects of having any semblance of a prosperous, economically/financially sound future.

They've gone from being an impoverished authoritarian state, to being a destitute totalitarian state. The collapse is imminent, it's gonna be like the '90s on steroid for them, and they've got their own government to blame it on.

[HC-gnpv]

They just mentioned ideas that everyone knows.

[alipaf]

About aircrafts, there is a black market, and why should not China help Russia.

[toffee]

Great insights but practically many countries will buy oil off Russia. As such Russia is discounting oil 25 % for rest of the world other than Europe & America's.

[thegospelmessengercorinth]

Romans 1:16 - King James Version
16 For I am not ashamed of the gospel of Christ: for it is the power of God unto salvation to every one that believeth; to the Jew first, and also to the Greek. (The Letter of Paul to the Romans)

Romans 5 - King James Version
18 Therefore as by the offence of one judgment came upon all men to condemnation; even so by the righteousness of one the free gift came upon all men unto justification of life. (offence of one - Adam's one trespass, one sin, led to the condemnation of all men - the righteousness act of one was Jesus' death on the cross to pay for human sin)

Salvation is not getting your sins forgiven, it's believing they already are!

We are all sinners and fall short in God his glory - how to be saved - this is the gospel of salvation - 1 Corinthians chapter 15 verses 1-4 by trusting and believing the gospel of salvation you are saved and sealed with the Holy Spirit of promise till the day of redemption and nothing can pluck you out of the Father his hand - (In whom we have redemption through his blood, even the forgiveness of sins: (Colossians 1:14 - King James Version) - eternal security is a free gift - it's a promise and God Almighty cannot lie!!! Have a blessed day!

This is the gospel of salvation - 1 Corinthians chapter 15 verses 1-4
Witnesses of Christ's resurrection. 1) Moreover, brethren, I declare unto you the gospel which I preached unto you, which also ye have received, and wherein ye stand; 2) ''By which also ye are saved, if ye keep in memory what I preached unto you, unless ye have believed in vain. 3) For I delivered unto you first of all that which I also received, how that Christ died for our sins according to the scriptures; 4) And that he was buried, and that he rose again the third day according to the scriptures.

IT IS FINISHED... Paid in Full !!! But, You Must BELIEVE IT - 1 Corinthians 15:1-4 KJV.

2 Timothy 2
King James Version
15 Study to shew thyself approved unto God, a workman that needeth not to be ashamed, rightly dividing the word of truth.

Romans 2:16
King James Version
16 In the day when God shall judge the secrets of men by Jesus Christ according to my gospel. (Paul's Gospel - 1 Corinthians chapter 15 verses 1-4).

[davydacounsellor]

No the polish goverment took Russia to court because the spot price fell below the long term contract price, $250 they took Russia to the European court and won. Then when the spot price went up to over $1000, then the Europeans were not happy. Bias guest. Ps. This will only hurt the European working people.

[yuxdiqe]

Гуриев, ты перекрыл релокантам кислород. Вместо борьбы с режимом ты помогаешь борьбе с простым народом. Россияне тебя не простят

[poiuz]

lots of claims, where are the numbers and proofs? eg 5:19: a mere claim that date of invasion and rise in BTC 3 days later are related.

[patricks]

I'm gonna be objective here and say this was very biased pro western view of the situation ... and I live in the west/ background in capital markets

[NguyenNguyen-ftyg]

cant understand the word coming out ur mouth