Countering China in the Gray Zone: Lessons from Taiwan

How should Taiwan, the United States, and its allies in the Indo-Pacific respond to Chinese gray zone activities in and around the Taiwan Strait? Please join the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies for a conversation on this question with Freeman Chair non-resident Senior Associate Ivan Kanapathy, a key contributor to the new book The Boiling Moat (July 2024, Hoover Institution Press), edited by Matt Pottinger. Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies, will moderate the discussion.

This event is made possible through general support to CSIS.

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[jarrettbobbett]

Great talk wish these guys are on Twittter so I could learn more.

[JB-jxqd]

Oh, you mean "Hybrid Warfare"

[simonsu]

Hi, Ally. Where's your ambassy in Taiwan? Oh, yes. There WAS one, but US withdrew and cut off all the official relationships with Taiwan in 1978.

[goldengregory]

Water canon for water canon, cyber for cyber, explicit reciprocity and escalation xombined with recipricol informational and salami this thing. We the advantage now. Time is of the essence.

[lluc]

Ok. Summarize the whole interview into one sentence: more money for US military base😂😂😂

[Aard-pi]

Ivan Kanapathy says this book wants to ring the alarm, but Quasimodo can't hear him over the thunder of city bells. Schrödinger's China is a mainstay of Western analysis. Both ready to crash and systematically dying. Maintaining an unstoppable cement roller of power projection, while fielding a flailing autistic diplomatic corp. Mourning the death a single soldier in Africa and ready to sacrifice a generation of brotherless children for a point of pride. Projecting expertly on the Southern flank of Taiwan yet floundering to develop blue water projection north of it.

There has been no straw that broke the camel's back. The camel's back isn't broken. There is no book to be published now or later which change this paradigm or make real an ambition. Hawk's driving for capability increase the severity of miscalculation and set the timeline for it. The best time to fight the war was 70 years ago. The second best time is never.

This book makes inflammatory claims, but the PLA is no Wehrmacht, Xi Jinping is no Hitler, and there is no actual prospect of Western appeasement. 10, 000 US dead? Of course, two aircraft carriers will be sunk. Which is the only way this war can start. It remains to be seen whether Xi will decide two 9/11's is the appropriate punishment for US initiatives. Sea denial is too easy for both sides, much easier to wait for a DPP leader's sexual deviancy or corruption to unwind the Gordian knot.

P.S. Matthew Pottinger is still the kinda guy who ploughs fields to make it rain.

[qingzhou]

This guy is very misleading, intentionally or not. PRC has claimed Taiwan since 1949, because of the Chinese Civil War. So the talk of PRC wants Taiwan because of TSMC or strategic location in First Island Chain vastly underestimates the resolve of PRC to unite Taiwan.
The talk of deterrence of PRC on Taiwan issue is like the British trying to deter American North in the Civil War. Impossible!
PRC will match anything US do for deterrence and more. This is much more serious for PRC than saving North Korea in Korean War.
I hope US will not repeat The mistake of crossing 38th Line.

[ywrxkbr]

There's a lot of salvia swallowing and pauses during this interview.

[johnwhoo]

Why do you still want to have a cold war? Why does it have to be I win you lose?!