World Energy Outlook 2024

The IEA's flagship World Energy Outlook, published every year, is the most authoritative global source of energy analysis and projections. It identifies and explores the biggest trends in energy demand and supply, as well as what they mean for energy security, emissions and economic development.

The World Energy Outlook covers the whole energy system, using a scenario-based approach to highlight the central choices, consequences and contingencies that lie ahead. It also illustrates how the course of the energy system might be affected by changing key variables, including the energy policies adopted by governments around the world.

[BobQuigley]

The only leading indicator that matters is PPM greenhouse gases. Right now the rising at an accelerating rate

[ErnestOfGaia]

#DoTheMath doesn't all the production expected and development of new infrastructure in your outlook shoot us over the carbon budget to stay under 1.5 or even 2 degrees Celsius scenarios?

[AlbertoSolarBC]

I don't know if the statement should be read as if it were encrypted. It says that the peak of emissions is very close and that is the same as saying that fossil fuel consumption will reach its maximum. But some calculations do not add up for me.

Economies today are very dependent on fossil fuels. Reaching the peak of emissions is also almost the same as saying the maximum economic growth. The electric vehicle is very good, but it is not necessary to move goods. Tractors, ships and trucks need diesel. Economies still need diesel.

It also says that there are five million barrels of surplus production. But many associate this with the economic crises that countries are experiencing. Therefore, less consumption is not voluntary, less is consumed due to the poor economic situation of countries. Can the economic situation be improved without increasing fossil fuel consumption?

Surplus production must be analyzed in detail and with concern. If demand falls too much, it may be necessary to stop the extraction of a well, which is almost the same as saying that the supply and with it the surplus are reduced. This is because reactivating a stopped well is very expensive and may not be easy.

The production capacity of diesel with current fossil energy sources has not been mentioned. Current oils are not always of the best quality for producing diesel. That is, the percentage of diesel that is refined may be reduced compared to previous years even if fossil fuel production remains constant. Therefore, without a minimum amount of diesel, economies may be harmed.

Nuclear energy may also have a problem. Uranium must be mined and enriched. Some analyses indicate that it will not be possible to do so at the desired speed to feed all nuclear power plants. That is, some will be stopped.

Regarding renewable energy, I would like to mention that in recent days there has been an increase in the prices of silver and nickel. It could be a one-off, but some announce that it is due to the difficulties of mining them. There may be problems in producing certain materials at the speed that the renewable industry would be demanding.

It is true that there is a greater amount of electricity available, but some analyses do not expect that it can be used. In Europe, this does not seem to be the scenario because electric vehicles are the only ones that could increase the demand for electricity and they are not selling as well as we would like. On the other hand, heavy industry continues to demand fossil fuels. Perhaps the rest of the planet can balance the scales with respect to the current scenario in Europe.

I would be delighted to hear your opinions.

[andoromeo]

This talk would be okay in1974, but not in 2024. A plus 2.4C scenario is about to come, even as early as 2050 they say? Well then, you can imagine rhe rest...

[KJSvitko]

The future is electric.
The future of electric generation is solar energy.
Huge empty parking lots can bee producing energy by using solar canopies.

[davidgraham]

Carbon dioxide emissions have risen practically every year for 100+ years. I see no reason why that would change whatever the IEA says.