A NASA Exercise Suggests 72% Chance An Asteroid May Hit Earth On This Day

NASA's recent hypothetical exercise revealed a concerning scenario: a potentially hazardous asteroid with a 72% chance of striking Earth on July 12, 2038, based on initial calculations. The exercise, part of NASA's Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise held in April at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, aimed to evaluate Earth's preparedness against such threats. The event involved around 100 representatives from various U.S. government agencies and international collaborators.

Despite the lack of imminent asteroid threats, the exercise underscored significant gaps in our planetary defense readiness. Key issues include inadequate decision-making processes, risk tolerance understanding, and insufficient readiness to launch space missions promptly. The need for better global coordination and defined disaster management plans was also highlighted.

This exercise was the first to incorporate data from NASA's DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission, which demonstrated that a kinetic impactor could alter an asteroid's trajectory. To further enhance asteroid detection and response capabilities, NASA is developing the NEO Surveyor, an infrared space telescope set to launch in June 2028. This mission aims to identify potentially hazardous near-Earth objects years before they pose a threat.