Big bull sees red hot economy, expects the Fed to address inflation

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The Federal Reserve is not expected to take any policy actions after its two-day meeting this week, but it is likely to signal that it is thinking about them.

Stock futures were flat on Wednesday morning as investors awaited the 2 p.m. ET Fed statement and Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference 30 minutes later.

Some economists expect the Fed to mention a coming tapering of its bond-buying program and give preliminary guidance on the discussion but not fully commit to tapering yet. The Fed will also release new economic forecasts, which it does quarterly.

There’s a chance it could pencil in an initial rate hike in 2023. In its previous forecast, there was no consensus for a rate hike among Fed officials though 2023.

“I think the commentary and the press conference will be interesting. There’s clearly a division on the board and among the Fed presidents about how strong the economy is, and whether it’s time to start evolving the policy,” said Rick Rieder, chief investment officer global fixed income at BlackRock. “How the chairman describes that is going to be very interesting. It’s hard to say it’s [going to be] hawkish because ... I think it’s going from uber dovish to overly dovish.”

Taper talk

At their last meeting, some Fed officials noted if the economy continued to make progress, it could be appropriate to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of bond purchases, according to the meeting minutes.

That discussion could begin this week, but only on a preliminary level, some economists say. The real details of the tapering of its $120 billion monthly purchases are expected to come later this year. Many economists expect the official discussion to be in late August, when the Fed meets in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for its annual symposium. The Fed could then begin unwinding its bond buying at the end of this year or beginning of next, they say.

“The message this week will likely be a heavy dose of “still a long way to go” sprinkled with concerns about upside risks to inflation. We do not expect the debate about tapering to be robust, but simply beginning the discussion and expressing concerns about the strong inflation impulse should carry hawkish overtones,” Barclays economists said in a note.

Tapering the bond program is important because the beginning of the end of its so-called quantitative easing signals the Fed would be on the path to eventually tighten policy — or raise interest rates. The Fed began purchasing Treasurys and mortgage securities last year as a way to provide liquidity when the Covid pandemic shut the economy down.

Once the Fed starts reducing the purchases, it could take months to be completed. When it reaches zero, the door would then be open for the Fed to raise interest rates. The Fed’s easy policies have been credited with fueling the stock market’s rally to repeated new highs and creating a robust environment for the housing market.

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Комментарии

I dont really understand this stuff but seomthing about BOND buybacks affect ....?

vajraloka

Nothing they say help us they’re not here for us but for the filthy rich!!

sammhy

Jonathan Golub analyst stock forecast
Jonathan Golub
Credit Suisse
Wall Street Analyst
Ranked #6, 353 out of 7, 551 Analysts on TipRanks (#12, 794 out of 15, 616 overall experts)

redstar

Fed will crash markets Wednesday, glad I have Puts on.

brewswillis

LET THE FREE MARKET FALL. SELL SELL SELL

claireabella

The fed will downplay inflation, ignore it, tell the world it’s nothing to worry about and look the other way because inflation is what the fed wants. Continue to not think about thinking of tapering or raising interest rates.

georgemaximus