Deglobalization's Impact on Global Food Exports || Peter Zeihan

Globalization has allowed us (meaning humans as a species) to make some of the worst lands farmable, inhabitable, and even prosperous. But what happens to global food exports when globalization ends?

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#globalization #food #export

[Feralzen]

About 10 years ago, the Harper government of Canada vitoed the sale of Canada's largest Potasium mine to Chinesse interest. It's one of the rare occasions that a canadian government had foresight.

[MartinMcMartin]

If a large group of Americans suddenly lost access to 1/3 of their calories they would healthy.

[reubencarter]

Just announced China is now banning Canadian canola as a retaliatory measure for the Canadian tariff on Chinese Ev’s. If China keeps banning NA agricultural products then they will be completely dependent on Russia and Brazil for their food imports.

[wattlebough]

For people surprised to hear Peter list Australia among the countries with highly fertile soil, it’s true that while Australia is 90% arid and at least 70% desert, the remaining land that is highly fertile is still larger than the entire mass of Japan (which at its peak supported 128 million people in 2010), in a crescent that arcs roughly from north of Brisbane all the way around the south east of the continent to Adelaide in South Australia. Anyone who’s been there knows it’s lush and green with vast swaths of under utilised farmland.

[judewarner]

There are numerous plants, including ground covering clover, that fix nitrogen. Sheer laziness prevents more widespread use. Managed mixed agriculture rather than monoculture is the way to go.

[jjggbbjunk]

In case there is confusion: Natural gas is the cheapest way to get the hydrogen needed to make ammonia. In the Haber-Bosch process, the nitrogen comes from the air. You could use electrolysis to get the hydrogen, but it would be expensive. Nitrogen, itself, is everywhere.

[kayrosis]

Peter is one of those guys I listen to occasionally and just hope he's wrong. He makes a decent case as to why things will play out a certain way, and I find value in his perspective even when I disagree, but if I were to actually believe what he says, I'd drink way too much alcohol. Still fun to watch what random mountain he's at each video though, I am pretty jealous of his nature hikes.

[chantelleswhite]

Canadian here. I love you, Peter, but if I may, I have never heard Canadians use this slang. Thanks for all the incredible content!

[brendanalfo]

Australia produces abundant foods can feed 73 million people we only have 27 million people. Our fertiliser is American., so i dont see that changing. Our problem is more free trade agreements we pay for other countries to take our good stuff for cheap and we pay high for the crap.

[lolzormachine]

I was having a great morning
I can always count on you, Peter

[kyleborgman]

There’s a beautiful golf course in Florida called Streamsong that was built on an old phosphate mine. They basically had to just throw seed down and water it because there was so much phosphate in the ground

[jvin]

Export markets will certainly evaporate, creating sudden excess supply and low demand, driving lower grain prices. On the other side, the farming methods without imports of huge fuel, fertilizers, and pesticide inputs will drop grain outputs dramatically, so prices will rise. There will be a tumultuous whiplash of food prices/supply/shortages, but it can stabilize. There are some farms, massive 5, 000 acre farms selling to major food companies under contracts and not just hippie homesteaders, that have transitioned to no fertilizers, no pesticides, and even retaining their own seed to replant. They need some fuel but they are making fewer trips across the fields with smaller more fuel efficient tractors. Those skills will be challenging for all farmers to undertake after two generations of "easy" chemical farming, certainly, but it's doable. Citizens should learn to grow their own gardens in the summer and microgreens in the winter as protection against shortages.

[jedgarren]

Pete is my favorite analyst because I too am a backcountry hiker, I live just a couple miles from an entrance to The Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

[torbjarne]

FYI, I Norway has found phosphate, about 60% of the world’s reserves. We also got quite big reserves of natural gas.

[eastcorkcheeses]

Ireland is basically cows and cattle, and growing feed for them,
Output will reduce massively as we won't be importing soya and grain, and can get by with minimal fertilizer, and diesel .
But in a world in food deficit, we sell butter, cheese and beef as commodities, thing is we're still a small player ..

[johnthompson]

With all these minerals finally passing into every country's sewerage, I can't see food exporting nations not figuring out how to get fertilizer from it.

[ronowen]

I listen to you everyday, you have such a warm and bubbly, out look on life. 😂

[thekinguandme]

“Florida of all places…” this is how Floridians would like to be referred to going forward

[alexbakker]

According to Google: (the Netherlands, one of the smallest countries in Europe) It is the EU's largest U.S. agricultural importing country and continues to be the second largest exporter of agricultural products in the world, after the U.S. These exports include products produced in the Netherlands as well as imported products that are re-exported, often after further processing and adding value.

[YC-bkfl]

1:21 Not true. Most estimates put China at around 20-25% of global phosphate exports. Morocco is the leading exporter of phosphate and its derivatives at around 40% of global exports, and has the largest known phosphate reserves in the world.