Predicting the next bitcoin peak with Checkmate

In this episode, we sit down with James Check to tackle common misconceptions in bitcoin, from misunderstood on-chain metrics to the real impact of long-term holders. We break down key market indicators, discuss risks of audience capture, and explore whether bitcoin is set for slow, steady growth or another 80% drop. We also dive into the relevance of entity-adjusted metrics, the potential impact of ETFs, and how Checkmate optimizes bitcoin allocation strategies. Looking ahead, we speculate on bitcoin’s role in future portfolios, touch on large-scale gold buying, and even consider whether aliens might have their own version of bitcoin.

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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Introduction
01:40 What is one thing you think most people are wrong about?
08:14 Misinterpreted on-chain metrics and long-term holders
13:00 Key metrics to watch for market tops
19:10 Protecting against audience capture in bitcoin narratives
22:44 Slow grind up vs fast exponential growth?
25:48 Will bitcoin fall another 80% at some point?
29:25 Bitcoin was not a ZIRP phenomenon
30:10 Optimizing DCA and portfolio allocations through cycles
35:00 How accurate are “entity-adjusted” on-chain metrics?
41:10 Do ETFs destroy the potential usefulness of on-chain analytics?
46:35 Decades from now, how much bitcoin is in a typical portfolio?
50:50 Who is buying gold in size now?
56:50 Do aliens exist and did they discover their own bitcoin?
1:02:50 Closing thoughts

WHERE TO FOLLOW US:

[unchainedbtc]

Buy bitcoin in an IRA—sign up today and get your first year free: unchained.com/frontier

[epilpstd]

Checkmate is one of the most sensible people in this space. A levelheaded maxi. We need more like him.

[JorgeVazquezT.]

Investing in mutual funds offers a structured and diversified approach to building wealth, managed by professional fund managers. While there are costs and some limitations, the benefits of diversification, professional management, and ease of access make mutual funds a popular choice for achieving a variety of financial goals.

[gostanford]

That was a fantastic interview! James shared incredible insights on on-chain analytics and BTC market dynamics. Please bring him back more often. 🧡

[gbhome]

Super informative and thought provoking cast. Thanks guys.

[CowboyInTheJungle]

James is the antithesis of the crypto bros. You have to have him back on in the future.

[robertrobert]

Great signal. Love your segment interludes to add context. Unique in the space🤝

[Novaknet]

Thanks for keeping crypto speech intellectual.

[_-Wade-_]

That's a really great episode, but my model is DCA bi-weekly with zero fees. Also helps manage cash flow.

[rubenortega]

This guest gives me a headache. Just buy bitcoin at any price and hold it. You will do better than anyone.

[JocobsComments]

Is there a poly market for Bitcoin bull run?

[Luke-cjgz]

Please stop pausing the videos to repeat what the guest is telling us. It makes no sense and is difficult to listen to

[btcbenny]

I don' t think he understands Bitcoin. You can't model out the lows. Even with onchain data, there is a lag. YOU Can't DCA at low levels based on on chain data and say that when you have an 80% drawdown you are only down 5% lmao. You DCA at the price you deserve and hold for at least one cycle.

[Somellier]

So basically.... he doesnt know when the top amd bottom is. Whats thr point

[senorgringopapi]

Wow the beginning feels like commercial tv unfortunately

[vot]

A lot of posers talk. James and Joe are guys I listen to.

[GetOhn]

3:51 exactly why the "supply crunch" crowd are delusional

[Vonnie]

28:00
We are still in a huge bubble none like every before do to the fed and government spending
If something goes wrong we will see a bug recession

[dk-zhnc]

All this over-analyzed rubbish is exactly why you guys will miss the top. Every major player and whale will sell when the Pi Cycle Top indicator triggers and then get into short positions.

[P__]

Was originally a fan of Checkmate, but if you follow him closely he puts out so many metrics that he can always claim to be right. Not worth following IMO.