Democrats Hold Ground in Key Senate Races, Republicans Still Favored

Let’s fill out a 2024 US Senate map based on the latest poll taken in all 34 contested races. Democrats must defend 23 of the 34 Senate seats up for election this November, including 8 of the 10 most competitive races and three seats in states Trump won in both 2016 and 2020– those are Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. Needless to say, the 2024 Senate map is extremely favorable for Republicans- the question is can they get the job done in the key races.

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Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing non-partisan political channel on YouTube, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. My official 2020 Presidential Election Forecast correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states. My 2022 Senate Forecast accurately projected the winners in 33 of 34 races.

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[gunnerz]

Crazy that Ohio is solid red for president but not for senate

[garymartin]

It's all over for California. Now they'll elect Schiff-for-brains to a 6-year senate term. How wonderful.

[papawayne]

People actually voting FOR Schiff.. mindblowing!! But then they also keep voting Newsom too... Good luck California!

[debbieesparza]

The RNC needs to give funds to Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Arizona, Montana, Ohio, New Mexico, and Wisconsin so the Senate is strong to back Trump. Same for the house.

[thisischris]

Something I've been wondering about is how the down ballet effects will affect the senate races. Maybe with previous elections, there could be a way to get an idea of what that could look like, with averaging the last couple elections. Idk but Im sure we can figure it out

[bobdickerson]

Hogan in Maryland is a Republican, but a Trump hater. However, he may vote for some of Trump’s agenda which the democrat will never do.

[scott]

I'll happily take the 51 but why does it have to be so damn close? 55-45 would feel so much better. I wonder if either side will ever have that kind of majority again?

[kellybrown]

Even RATS are smart enough to leave a sinking ship?

[SonOfSteel]

I feel like the GOP can flip the senate seats in Ohio and Nevada.

[tonyv]

I’d love to see term limits.. or at least after 2 consecutive terms you must sit out for a term.. it would break up a lot of cronyism

[JHandle]

Actually, the latest poll in Minnesota is an Emerson poll with Klobuchar at 47 and Fraser at 37, for a 10 point advantage. The same poll has Trump vs Biden as 45-45, and 5-way as Trump-Biden-Kennedy 42-41-6. Normally, a 10 point advantage would still make Minnesota safe for Klobuchar, but the poll indicates around 8 percent of Minnesota voters are split Trump for President and undecided for Senate. Were they to be convinced to vote straight ticket Republican, that would give Klobuchar a narrow lead of 47-45. Of course, we can't confidently anticipate that result, but I think there's enough uncertainty with Minnesota to downgrade the rating from Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat, now that the presidential contest in the state is down to a tossup.

[ArnoBrecker]

Can you do another (updated) video based on polling errors from the past few elections contrasted with current polls? Thanks 🙏 love your content

[CB]

Weird that you chose a Montana senate poll from 3 months ago when one was just released two weeks ago that showed 3rd party candidates and had Tester and Sheehy tied 🤔 is your bias showing?

[TristanJames-wl]

This would be a HORRIBLE night for the republicans, they should be able to win Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, and either Arizona or Nevada. Than either one of the three between Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania

[miken.]

Way too soon. If we can even rely on the polling. It's been pretty bad the last few elections.

[billg]

While I appreciate your attempt to doing this analysis, we are just now getting into the summer political battles where voters will get much more information (and mudslinging ads). As the summer progresses and we head into the Fall last minute spending cycle, I think your map will look much different by September. If the Dems push Old Joe out and depending on his replacement, that too could swing the margins greatly one way or another.

[rh]

Vote republican president congress and senate so Trump can pass laws

[GSD-]

You minimised your disparaging remarks regarding the Ohio republican candidate to merely “car salesman” because you knew you would get destroyed in the comments 😂

[debbieesparza]

Will we ever get rid of lying Adam Schiff?

[nramirez]

Bro, I watch all your videos…..Why is every video a “Shocking Poll”?
😄😄😄👍🏽👍🏽👍🏽🇺🇸🇺🇸