Global Dimming Paradox: Are we facing an abrupt temperature spike?

Global Warming is taking a rare back seat in the news right now, as we deal with the more immediate existential crisis afflicting our civilisation and way of life. But as entire countries are getting shut down around the world, with the rapid reduction of emissions that this causes, is the global dimming paradox about to be tested? Will we see an abrupt spike in temperatures that tips our earth systems into an irreversible cascade of warming feedbacks?

Addendum : Drew Shindell is in fact a professor at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, NOT Durham North East England. Apologies for this error.

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Their academic papers and articles provided the motivation to make  this video.

Research Links:

[basilpeterson]

I have a small organic farm here in the finger lakes NY and have been chronicling the changing weather patterns, bird migrations, insect populations, and the general shifts that have made it harder to grow the usual crops here and the ability to grow things that are adapted to more southern regions. Over the past 20yrs the changes were gradual but now have become much more pronounced . Most people that don't depend on the natural weather cycles for their livelyhoods are just annoyed by floods and droughts and don't see what the effect is on the environment until they have to pay more for carrots or peas or corn. 20yrs ago I never had to irrigate anything there was regular rainfall now if I don;t collect rainfall when it comes I will lose crops ....so it goes ....the changes are increasing exponentially as time goes on.

[barryschwarz]

I'm a long term sojournor in the climate 'debates'. I've also had a lay interest in science of any stripe since I was a wee lad. The articulated fair-mindedness in this video is heartening. Well put, and the science was clearly expressed. Being a public speaker for 30 years, I know that this is a real skill, or a rare natural ability. Well done, mate. Excellent transmission of science and dialogue.

[katphyre]

I've just discovered your channel and I really find this stuff interesting. Also, you're so pleasant to listen to and so genuine with your well wishes. It is a strange time.

[SteveRichfield]

There are SO many simple/cheap ways to address climate change that NO ONE is talking about. Two examples:
1. Tax employers for the mileage their employees must commute - to encourage them to "hire local" and save on the exhaust emissions.
2. Put lanterns on the gas humps in Siberia, to ignite the methane when it escapes, as methane is MUCH worse than CO2.
Seeing NO action on such simple and effective measures, it is REALLY hard for me to take the politics of climate change seriously.

[bambispoon]

Having just come back to your videos after a little break I am struck by your incredible talent for presenting soooo many complicated details so clearly. Congrats on your excellent important work! Much appreciated!

[whatthefunction]

I lived near a airport back then. It was so quiet for 3 days. Didn't realize how stressful noise pollution is.

[paintedwings]

Thanks for showing many differing papers and conclusions. I hadn't actually seen opposing data to the global dimming concept, and mistakenly thought it was far more certain than it sounds to be. As a scientist, striving to be open to challenges to my views, I really appreciate getting the incorrect understanding of things knocked out of my head. Thank you for looking into this question! Not only is it interesting to talk about the potential of global dimming--or not--but right now is a real live chance to gain far more data about what happens when an economy slows and aerosol productions are significantly reduced. I look forward to seeing the after-action analysis in a few years!

[stenkarasin]

Having watched these videos I can't help having a sneaking suspicion that we really don't have any way of knowing with certainty what will happen as a consequence of anything we do.

[stephentrouse]

I really love the format of this one and the enormous effort you’ve put in. The content too is level, balanced and evidence based and I really appreciate it.

[alexcarter]

The McPherson Paradox goes mainstream. It's about time.



I'm in "Silicon Valley" in California and it's gotten cooler, back to how it was 15 or 20 years ago, and a lot colder at night - there was even a bit of snow in South San Jose a week ago. And during the day when the sun's out it feels like the sun in Hawaii where I grew up - strong.

[florinadrian]

It's like wondering whether pulling the arrow from a wound would not send the victim into shock.

[mrenrollment]

Most certainly the current scenario will lead to many studies in many disciplines. Lets pay attention to the real science and not the conspiracies that arise. Be skeptical, follow data, allow for alternate arguments. All of us can learn to use a 'science-mind', even if we are not scientists.

So lets 'Just Have a Think'

[kerynadcock]

Wow, we're loving your classy graphics and virtual studio (to accompany your already calm manner and reasoned arguments).
One thought that came to mind is that the 9/11 contrail case was a poor experiment in that it was limited days and limited location, involving only aeroplanes. The effect may have been statistically insignificant given the noisy spatio-temporal nature of atmospheric and temperature variations. This coronavirus crisis effect on industry shutdowns will be nearer to a global phenomenon affecting all aspects of emissions, and there may me much more to learn regarding net temperature effects of "release" from global dimming by human emissions.

[geofffriend]

Unfortunately the food production world wide is slowing. The locusts are now decimating East African farmlands, having halved Pakistan's crops. France and Spain are in deep trouble and produce much of Europe's food. Check out the situation with agricultural workers in USA.The insect collapse has happened and is worsening. The global dimming/aerosol masking debate is academic....although local regional temperatures are showing increases.Coral reefs continue to collapse. The arctic ice is declining very rapidly as I write. Anyone who thinks we are not in grave, immediate danger right now is not looking at the overall system, natural and man-made. I don't want this to be so. We won't help each other by avoiding the facts. Continually we hear 'faster than expected'. Good luck everyone.

[avjake]

I appreciate your comments on the comments section. I would like to add that I think opinions are considered with more care when the commenter is treating others with respect.

[alecslad]

Just found your site. very impressed. Your ability to unravel the complexity involved in the discussion is flawless. Wish I’d had a teacher as interesting as you when I was at school.

[jyreHeffron]

thank you for adding your two cents on 'dimming'.... I love the presentation style you've developed, ever more refined and always pleasant... and while you may be going only so deep in your research, I think you help us grasp the essentials and thats hugely important... I'll help spread the word... and thanks again for your work!!!

[fanjan]

Constructive dialogue...the first step to solving problems

[markharris]

I find myself believing much of what both sides of the climate change debate say. However, it seems to me that the gradual removal of fossil fuels from the energy cycle is by far the safer option.

[obsidianjane]

"We have no idea, but we are going to go with the theory that gets us the most funding."
The human gestalt is a narcissist.