Was This Really a 1 in 700,000,000,000 Year Event?! - Antarctic sea ice melting fast

For decades, Antarctic sea ice trends seemed to defy climate change, until…they didn’t. In just two years, Antarctica lost as much sea ice as the Arctic lost in three decades. Statistics say that the record low sea ice in 2023 was a 1 in 700 BILLION year event, suggesting that the models in this case may be broken, or that this anomaly was caused by climate change. And a new study asked the question: does this represent a STATE CHANGE? And what would that mean for one of our most iconic species, the emperor penguin? And what does reduced sea ice mean for Thwaites, the Doomsday Glacier? With summer sea ice hitting the third-lowest extent in recorded history, it's time to check-in. Watch this episode to find out.

Weathered is a show hosted by weather expert Maiya May and produced by Balance Media that helps explain the most common natural disasters, what causes them, how they’re changing, and what we can do to prepare.

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[pbsterra]

Statistical analysis says the chance of the observed low sea ice in 2023 was 1 in 700 BILLION (yes you read that right!), indicating that in this case, the statistics were broken. So, either the limited sea ice records aren't sufficient to model the natural variability, OR it's climate change. What do you think?

[bk]

Give the once in 700B years guy a raise. He must have increased engagement in the comment section at a rate we'd only expect to see once every 890 trillion years.

[toughenupfluffy]

I think that the odds of 7 standard deviations away from the mean are better explained by saying it's a one in 700, 000, 000, 000 chance, rather than once every 700, 000, 000, 000 years, which is way longer than the universe has existed.

[pearlwooton]

Tipping point. Not trying to be an alarmist. The fresher meltwater froze easier. Now the water has warmed to a point that it is no longer able to freeze. A new equilibrium is then met and the trend flattens. This new state will persist until more heat energy is absorbed to destabilize the system.

[baomao]

AT MIT I learned,
“All models are wrong. Some are better than others.”

[jwbowen]

I just don't have any optimism left that things will change without catastrophic loss of human life

[OneAmongBillions]

There is something about this presenter, perhaps cadence of voice, that I find comforting as we approach the end of the world.

[goemboeck]

The amount of suffering our sociopathic destructive capitalism causes to everything living is crushing my soul.

[PaulJoanKieth]

looks like we might have tipped over one of those tipping points

[animistchannel]

For a number of years, sea ice areas were artificially inflated by the very fact of more fresh water running off various land masses, as fresh water tends to stay at the surface and freezes more easily (but more thinly). That temporary effect is ending, and the real "new standard" for winter refreeze is starting to take place.

Now you have meltwater running off land/glaciers onto warmer sea water with lower albedo, and so much less of it will freeze, form even thinner layers, and remelt faster. This is a feedback loop.

Add to this the truly staggering quantity of arctic microbe-generated methane released from millions of square miles of melting permafrosts ("cow burps" are nothing by comparison), and it almost doesn't even matter what's going on with CO2 any more. Warmer water producing more water vapor, plus geologic methane release, plus lowered albedo are going to push the total climate system to the interglacial warm phase at a triple-accelerated rate on top of the CO2 effects.

You're looking at 5-10 C ave temp increases and 5 meter sea rise in a century.

[kbmblizz]

When Arctic 🧊is gone. Deniers will tell us, "We don't need sea ice, we have refrigerators to make ice." 😂 BTW, end-of-century is hopium optimistic.

[socalgal]

So... Let's just suppose this is a natural cycle.
Where's the harm in reducing our fossil fuel consumption? And reducing our use of plastics and pesticides? And limiting our water and electricity waste?
I can't see how any of that is a bad thing!
And if we then see that the earth is changing back - well then, it sounds like a win to me!

[semipenguin]

Oil companies are more interested in making money than saving penguins. Even in the industry I work in, it’s taken years for engine and fuel companies to lower emissions to the point they are at now.

[Dabebo-xkbt]

We are heading to the unknown and that's not so bad unless we're talking about the weather and the planet. There goes the neighborhood is no joke.

[BrentHollett]

Time to build giant floating platforms that can be used by penguins as a permanent nesting site until we can restore the climate.

[chorchamroeun]

We just got 90 last week in Texas. It already feels like July and August in February. If global warming is not real, I don't know what it is.

[justinhan]

How do you expect the selfish human being will ever learn this and so our politicians will do something about the importance of our climate?

[raphaelgarcia]

Sounds like it’s hard to model something this complex, but we should update our models with some more realistic forecasts.

It’s going to get worse before it gets better. Therefore use the good times now to minimize the impacts. It’s never going to get easier.

[MarkYoung-lf]

The life of the Sun is 10 Billion Years before it goes "Red Giant". So statistically this Event "Cannot" actually happen.

[buckstricland]

Love me some PBS Terra. Never too old to learn.