Daniel Kahneman: The Trouble with Confidence

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[parshiwal]

RIP Sir, always a great fan of you since I first read your book Thinking Fast and Slow.. Love from Pakistan

[WerewolfSlayer]

Confidence - a result of personal gain/success, persons atributes(belif in success)+ experience. A very powerfull tool. Also present in many powerfull leaders, or sucessfull bussinessmen for fighting their way up. When you have too much of it, you get a self pride that makes you arrogant as a result of of what you have accomplished- if you lose perspective you get over confident- . Even though you started with good intentions- it ends up in a war maintaining that potition instad of what you

[spejarn]

I've been thinking about this the other day due to some video blog thing i happened to come across, the confidence of Americans and its impact on internal and external conflicts, it's very scary when you do some research and think about it for a second, an ego too big can make you oblivious to your own flaws and its impact on other people.

[jigyanshushrivastava]

Watching this in Corona times.
So true.

[chrisose]

In other words it is best to be a optimistic realist. Believe that things will go well but understand that they may fail.

[djapicmilos]

optimism and over confidence is what moves us humans forward. On the other hand, coming down from trees could be the worst mistake we have ever made.

[onee]

I think that a lot of start-up fails more than just over-confidence. A lot of people also don't know exactly what they want. They have a "Let's wait and see what happens" type of mentality.

[IntheEndAhNevermind]

I think people should always be confident, but they should also be realists. I don't think there is such a thing as being overly confident, only those who are very unrealistic.

[sushanalone]

Such simple and in your face things that we miss and fail to realize in our everyday life/decisions, because of our biases and rigid thinking styles.

[sleazybtd]

@Shanongao
[We need to choose whos BETTER for the job]
The problem is that, like in the 2008 election, we're given a choice of Tweedledum and Tweedledee. Each party chose the person who was most confident about their lies and the rest of us had only those options,

[MikeyDavis]

Entrepreneurs don't know the risks, and that's exactly why they take them. So they can learn the risks and create new and better things in the process. There are no risks in business. Only lessons with different price tags. The entrepreneur knows he can always get back up if it didn't kill him or land him in jail, so death is probably the only risk a real entrepreneur takes seriously. If I can't obviously see why I shouldn't do this, then maybe I'm on to something, and if I'm not, I am ready to learn a lesson so valuable, it was worth whatever I paid for it.

[DELL.ACNT.]

So what I got from this is that overconfidence gives the illusion that your odds of success are higher than they actually are. Once you're invested, you can lose more than you gain, because you didn't guage it correctly. If you read his book, it's a bias of the mind, offering known solutions to a question different from the original one. If you don't caredully analize the ideas logically, you'll accept the odds rather than challenge the truth, and end up with a loss.

[ericjiang]

The culture has emphasized too much on confidence, instead it makes people overconfident and nobody talks about the problem of being overconfident. I was overconfident and I have made many mistakes because of that, it’s not diffident if you want to be humble and realistic about things

[PeaceEmissary]

physically, there exist both a negative bias and a positive offset.
the positive offset enables organisms to 'get used' to new threats, and learn in this process. the negative bias is a relation between responses to threat\bonus - whereby the graph is steeper after exposure to threat, than to a gratification.
the latter is supposedly the cause (contributes) of the 'loss aversion' - yet no proof supports this argument in O'keefe & Jansen's meta-research.
feel free to comment on this discussion

[Ebvardh]

Well, I checked it, and what the paper discussed was that gain-framed messages were more effective in persuading subjects than loss-framed messages.
I think it would be necessary to do more studies on the subject to talk conclusively about this, but so far it seems you're right to say negative bias is not something that he'd be right to address.

[spontaneousbootay]

The problem must be overexpectation. True success is only the cumulative result of failure. Dont beat yourself up

[HakuCell]

@garyglittereatschild he didnt say one shouldnt follow his dreams due to the possibility of failure, he just made an example showing how over confidence is not always good

[PeaceEmissary]

not only it has been statistically overruled, the physical negative bias which has been demonstrated widely (a physiological effect that avoids danger or discomfort) (Caccioppo et al, 1999 etc.) and was presumably the "physiological" explanation for the said aversion, was also insignificant. Moreover, even the assumptioin of the "kernel state" which is the incentive (loss\gain) was tested, and yielded no such effect.
btw. correction: check O'keefe, 2008 and not as i mentioned earlier 1999 :)

[tarikabaraka]

Daniel Kahneman es un psicólogo israelo-estadounidense notable por su trabajo sobre la psicología del juicio y la toma de decisiones, así como sobre la economía del comportamiento. Sus hallazgos empíricos desafían el supuesto de la racionalidad humana que prevalece en la teoría económica moderna.​

[JBroMCMXCI]

@GuruEdward It is. He's saying be realist and don't be overconfident when you want to start a business and you will succeed. Success = money. Money = girls.