Inside Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plan: A Tale of Electoral Uncertainty and the Kursk Offensive

The Kursk offensive began in August, but its origins date back to two months earlier. This video tracks Ukraine's concerns about U.S. politics going back to June, and how they compelled Ukraine to take a gamble in Russia. We then explore the details behind a potential Trump peace plan and how the Kursk offensive may change its feasibility.

0:00 The Origins of the Kursk Offensive
1:01 The Washington NATO Summit
4:55 Ukraine's Election Conundrum
6:23 Formulating Ukraine's Strategy
10:11 What Would a Trump Peace Plan Look Like?
13:05 Why the Plan Is Coherent
21:36 How Holding Russian Territory Changes Peace Deals
23:36 Invalidating Pessimistic Beliefs and Changing the Election

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

By Ministry of Defense UA:

[aSnailCyclopsNamedSteve]

You have forgotten one factor. If the conflict is frozen at the present line, it means that Russia has achieved gains through force. Why should every other dictator on the planet not begin to attempt the same thing as there are no consequences other than a few sanctions?

[Sweet_Pup_g]

It's hard to imagine Putin engaging in good faith peace talks. He annexed territory Russia didn't control to claim that Russia was being invaded. Russia actually got SMO'd and embarrassed Putin even further. I don't see why Putin gets rational all of a sudden and starts talking about peace unless its just a ploy to buy time for another offensive.

[nvelsen]

Historically speaking, Russia has never upheld any treaty that lacked kinetic enforcement. They broke every agreement ever signed, unless an army was keeping it from breaking.

[gdbalck]

There's a major flaw in all of this. Putin has no intention of adhering to any agreement long-term. An agreement in bad faith is no agreement.

[nathansamuelson]

Any cease fire that doesn't have a security guarantee for Ukraine might as well tell Russia to wait a decade and try again.

[Andriy_Sklyar]

As a Ukrainian, I was disgusted to watch a possible attempt to turn us into another divided Korea. I am outraged by the friendly peace negotiations with the aggressor, which do not include the immediate complete withdrawal of troops from our territory. We paid for security guarantees from the USA and Great Britain the №3 world nuclear arsenal, and we are forced to deal with the fact that they are trying to appease Russia at the cost of Ukraine's lands.

[asap]

History has shown us that invading Russia is frankly terrible offense strategy but Ukraine has shown us that invading Russia is a valid defense strategy.

[MatthewFors-fx]

Tacitus: 'A bad peace is even worse than war.'

[gjk]

22:39 "Russia values Kursk more than the Donbas, and Ukraine values the Donbas more than Kursk. Thus, they would both be better off trading."

This is a FUNDAMENTAL misunderstanding of Putin's goals and motivations. It's not about incorporating Ukrainian soil into the Russian Federation. That is completely beside the point.

It is about rendering Ukraine as a sovereign, self-determined, democratic country a failure.

That is why lines on maps only provide a very limited perspective on this conflict. Game theory in general has more to offer here on the operational than it does on the strategic level.

[Mountain-Man-]

One problem with the negotiated ceasefire is that Korea established a precedent showing you will not reclaim your lost territory for a long long time if ever. If Ukraine submits to this, it restablishes in the modern age that aggressive expansionism through military power is ultimately effective. Democratic nations by nature of deciding to obey laws and international agreements would not be able to use this tactic. This creates an asymmetric power situation which will only perpetuate the likelihood of expeditionary militant action by authoritarian regimes. This further weakens global stability and western democracy, since our current system is reliant upon globalisation. The world is always either controlled by one strong ruling party or split into camps fighting for control. As western democracy is currently in control, allowing the power dynamic to shift in any meaningful way is an admittance that democratic values aren't important. So if we truly believe in democracy, we must not give in. We have to retain as much global authority as possible. We need to outlast the little angry men until the majority of the world agrees that democracy is good and the path forward.

[prfwrx]

The last time we had a ceasefire and guaranteed military aid, South Vietnam collapsed.

[dwurry]

Your analysis ignores two factors. 1) a weak Russia is good for the west. 2) Russia has already violated the Budapest agreements on nuclear arms and the ceasefire from 2014. The United States and the UK are committed to the military support that would commit NATO from the Budapest agreement and so there are no constraints on Russian future actions and no way to make a good agreement that will actually stop war. Thus, a weak or wrecked Russia is the only way to stop this war.

[michaelkirkland]

Missing here is that everyone fears that a peace agreement “incentivizes” wars like this. The bully nation gets something out of this behavior, may as well do it again

[jameshawkins]

There is absolutely no way we should let Russia hold the land they have taken from Ukraine over the last decade. Letting Putin keep Crimea did not stop him from wanting more. How do you think the US would approve of us sending troop to keep Russia back when we had such a difficult time just passing the recent aid bill? I just don't see how letting Putin have his way again will help anyone.

[KonglomeratYT]

The book ads at the end of these videos always give me a chuckle. This is my #1 channel for keeping up-to-date these days. You seem to know your stuff. I hope you keep going.

[Chuck_Hooks]

Using Putin's rules, votes in Kursk are 102% in favor of joining Ukraine.

[moseszero]

15:45 I think the point you missed with the "long term compliance" is that if Russia is pushed back to their borders then they GAINED nothing from this war so another attempt would not be advisable. But if Russia is able to start a war every 10-15 years and gain large sections of land each time then they have an incentive to repeat the process.

[jcdisci]

That 'piece plan' is perhaps the stupidest thing I've ever heard of in my 60+ years of service, observations, and research. Sometimes I feel like I'm the only one who remembers the USSR, the Berlin Wall and the Cold War.

[Burbon]

I'd consider myself on the right side of center, but I hate Republicans who think Russia is somehow morally outstanding and that Ukraine should just surrender. If you're not from the US, there was a debate for the Republican primary where Chris Christie laid it out perfectly. Appeasement never works. It was Republicans in the 30s and 40s with their isolationist policies that led to America not aiding in the war in a fuller capacity until post Pearl Harbor.

[laurentsalbert]

The thing is, this war would never have been a so called "stalemate" if Ukraine wasn't forced by its allies to get beaten without striking back, in the first place .

Without thoses imaginary, self imposed and now sadly infamous Red Lines, something like the Kursk counter offensive would have taken place in the very first year, probably just after Ukraine routed russian forces in Balaklia ; it was the logical thing to do at this time .

But the West, literally, and on many occasions seemed to do whatever it could to prevent Ukraine to win, the latest being the US arm embargo for about 7 month : this could have killed the Ukrainians, and in fact we will probably never know how toxic this decision was and still is : You don't cut critical ammo supply to someone without grave immediate and lasting consequences ( more UKr deads, more land losses, more infrastructure destroyed etc etc ).

It was a stalemate because the West wanted it to be( I should say : prefered it to be), not because the war was in a deadlock : at this time, the russian border was as empty as it was when the Kursk offensive began .