The End of Korean Unification?

In January 2024, North Korea declared it would no longer pursue peaceful reunification with South Korea, a goal that, while seen as increasingly unattainable, remained a foundational policy. This surprising decision by the country's leader, Kim Jong-Un, not only signifies a potential escalation between North and South Korea - the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (RoK) - but also threatens wider regional and global security. Even today, the two Koreas, technically still at war, maintain one of the most heavily militarised borders in the world. Meanwhile, the division of the Korean Peninsula, a remnant of Cold War antagonisms, remains a critical focal point of geopolitical concerns involving the United States, China, Russia, and Japan. North Korea's progression in nuclear arms development further exacerbates these tensions, adding a perilous dimension to an already volatile situation. But what exactly does this new announcement really mean? Does this mean permanent partition or pursuing unification by armed force?

While the shared history of the Koreas dates back thousands of years, the modern division arose from the geopolitical aftermath of World War II, with the Korean War cementing the separation along the 38th parallel. However, despite the ideological and economic chasms that have only widened since the war, both governments have historically upheld a shared goal of peaceful reunification, symbolised by various inter-Korean summits and joint declarations. However, as the North and South diverged with the North's decline into autocracy and the South's emergence as a democratic powerhouse, the practicality of reunification came into question. Against this backdrop of a deteriorating security climate, North Korea's intensified military posturing and nuclear ambitions have raised alarms, casting a shadow over the already dim prospects of a peaceful unification. The latest constitutional changes in North Korea and the designation of South Korea as its foremost enemy have extinguished what little hope remained for a peaceful path to reunification, steering the peninsula towards an uncertain and potentially devastating future.

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*VIDEO CHAPTERS*
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:47 Korean Reunification and International Security
02:08 North and South Korea: Location and Population
02:49 The Emergence of Korea
03:38 The Partition of Korea
05:07 Inter-Korea Relations during the Cold War, 1953-1991
05:59 Reunification Hopes after the Cold War, 1991-
07:38 Vanishing Hopes for Korean Reunification
09:20 Reunification and North Korea’s Growing Threat
11:11 North Korea Abandons Reunification

*SOURCES AND FURTHER READING*
Ministry of Unification | South Korea
KCNA | (North) Korea Central News Agency
4 July 1972 Joint Communique

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*MAP CONTENT*

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- The contents of this video and any views expressed in it were not reviewed in advance nor determined by any outside persons or organisation.
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#NorthKorea #Reunification #SouthKorea

[JamesKerLindsay]

Kim Jong-Un’s decision to abandon the goal of peaceful reunification came as a huge shock. For over fifty years, the two Koreas have been committed to eventually ending the Cold War division that has kept them apart. But do you think this is just Kim recognising that unity won’t happen and finding a way to tell his people, as some suggest? Or is this a sign that he no longer sees negotiated unification as an option but is now actively preparing for war, as other commentators believe? And what about South Korea? Could it manage reunifcation? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.

[eokii]

My view was that the true goal of the North Korean regime since the 2000s was never reunification but rather just the preservation of the North Korean regime.

If reunification threatened the North Korean regime, even if it were a situation favorable to North Korea, North Korea would not accept it.

[Larzh]

Isn't it perfectly rational for the Kim dynasty to want partition to become permanent? There is no way any reunification agreement would keep the PDRK regime in power.

[abcenglish]

As a South Korean, Kim Jong-un's recent declaration seems to be for the younger generation of North Korea. The younger generation of North Korea, the Jangmadang generation, is fanatically fond of South Korean dramas and songs. In North Korea, watching South Korean songs or dramas is so influential that it can land you in prison. I already think the regime war is over in the younger generation of North Korea. What they want is unification with South Korea. If there is a family living in South Korea after defecting from North Korea, the family left behind in North Korea, although suppressed by the North Korean government, is envied by the North Korean people. From Kim Jong-un's perspective, it is a huge crisis for the regime, and it is a declaration to the North Korean people that there will be no unification.

[tng]

Some years ago I learned that the South Korean parliament had tables and seats reserved for N Korean representatives in case unification were to happen the next day. Unsure whether it is still the case.

[aequitas]

Pyongyang isn't looking for unification anymore, they're looking for survival in the 21st century.

[bbokdoong]

As a South Korean, I see it as Kim's effort for self-preservation. He has a severe health issue, and his heir to the throne is still very young. North Koreans are increasely exposed to South Korean Kpop dramas and music and starting to realize North Korea is not the heaven on Earth. If Kim dies in a few years, North Korea can collapse very soon.

[BigRedDragonFan]

In a weird way, North Korea being poor, isolated, and antiquated is as powerful tool to prevent invasion as the military. Most of the people are economically hinderence and it would be the largest reconstruction project in world history to bring them to relatively modest standards. Not to mention the immense self inflicted environmental damage.

[napoleonfeanor]

East Germany and North Korea had close relations and the STASI internally called North Korean demands paranoid. Imagine even the STASI thinks you are too paranoid. They demanded their students to be isolated after classes

[iany]

First of all, peaceful reunification has always been mostly an aspiration. Secondly, Korean peninsula historically had three distinct kingdoms with very different origins that trace back to 1200 - 1100 BC. A unified Korea emerged around 14 - 15 century. The peninsula had much longer history of being divided than unified. So the announcement is not entirely out of historical norm.

[bangmo]

5:09 'along the 38th parallel' ..Not correct. The DMZ(DeMilitarized Zone) is not the 38th parallel. But 4 km wide belt; the center line was the bloody front line in July, 1953.

(I am a South Korean; and the following thought is not a typical Korean one.)

Basically this is a game between SK and US on one side and China on the other. NK is only a proxy or an agent. The ruling clique's Raison d'être is:
1) Serve the CCP, China
2) Make themselves irreplaceable ( in the eyes of the CCP)

The existence of SK itself makes them even more irreplaceable in two ways.

First, when a small drop of freedom or idea of an alternative is given to the people, the situation would become very, very volatile since people have known the success story of SK.

Second, if China pushes this spoiled clique too much, they would go rogue by 'selling the regime out' to the US and SK. The more nukes they have, the higher price they can sell at; the stronger negotiating position they have with regard to the CCP.

The CCP has chosen a stupid strategy. They have imagined, when they arm NK with nukes, that they could brainwash the SK people with the idea "only China can save us from the threat of NK's nukes" (psychological coercion) and that the US Forces in SK and Japan would be pinned down in the Taiwan or South China Sea contingency (military coercion). The result?

(1) Now SK people is one the most anti-China in the whole world even though there are strong biz ties between two countries.
(2) SK and the US have consolidated the extended nuclear deterrence (the will of the US to use nukes)

It is only 900 km from Seoul to Beijing. Only 700 from Sin-Ee-Ju (NK). The best strategy for China should be to stabilize the peninsula and make the division permanent. Mao said "when you lose your lips, your teeth gets frozen'(脣亡齒寒) when he sent three million soldiers to the Korean War and made hundreds of thousands killed or maimed. China should have managed NK as the buffer. That was exactly what the US had agreed to and wanted. Status-quo game. The geography of NK had set its fate as a buffer.

Still, China has armed this 'buffer' with nukes and with SRBMs, IRBMs and ICBMs. These are destabilizing, 'revisionist' stuff.

China's strategy has been schizophrenic. They have played a revisionist game with a 'should-be' status-quo locality.

I do not worry too much about the possibility of a full-scale conflict as long as the US maintains a hot-line communication channel with China. NK's ruing clique is a very cunning business group. They know that a war would be a total annihilation of the clique. As for China, they cannot bear the consequences: the loss of 'the The US Forces would not, should not be permanently stationed in the NK after a brief war. SK forces are more than enough for the PLA's Northern and Central Command Centers (北方战区, 中部戰區), in terms of non-nuke confrontation. Just imagine an 800, 000 soldiers (now it is 550, 000 ..after reunification it will be increased at least to 800, 000) armed with, for example, hundreds of fighters ranging from F-35, F-15, F-16 to the indigenous KF-21 which is more agile than F-16, almost as strong as F-15 and more of a multi-role than a F-35. And 4.5 million reserve forces (within 8 years after 2 years of conscription, .. now it is 3 milllion but...). China can destroy Korean Peninsula. But it cannot conquer or rule it. And SK has the power to destroy almost all the coastal area from Shanghai to Lianoing, including Beijing. The depth can reach upto ChongQing.

Why shoud China worry? Even if all the elites in Seoul are killed, SK, as a free republic, will go on. But if all the elites in Beijing are killed, the CCP ends.

China is the one to back-off. NK is the one to sell off. If China can manage the back-off (the handling of nuke-armed rogues), this peninsula will remain divided. If it fails, sooner or later, this cunning mass-killers will sell off the regime and start a new life in the US protectorate Virgin Island with the immunity given by the US.

[Calvin-kscr]

Yeah been like this for almost 80 years now, any change must come from within

[np]

Does anyone else remember how for about five minutes after Kim Jong Un took power we wondered if he would be a more progressive leader than his father?

[taiwanisacountry]

My former teacher during my master's degree was from Korea. He hoped for unification and was sure that it was going to happen in his life. I agreed with him. My idea with agreeing with him was, that the PRC is facing a very hard time to keep NK floating. The South's development within military equipment keeps widening the gap between them, this will shake the NK leadership + that Kim is going to die, and then we might have a crisis. If it even gets to that point. My fear is that NK is going to strike first and then gets rolled over after they have completely destroyed Seoul.

[JorgeGarcia-lwvc]

I have a ton of respect for Prof JKL. The background and context analysis was very good. It is only that tackling the question only comes up around minute 11. This deserves a follow up video, also to address potential scenarios with risks and opportunities alike. For example, could the declaration advance efforts towards a formal end of the war or to formalize boundaries? Could it simply lead NK to greater isolation, seeking a more defensive posture? Also what is the SK response? Just my two cents on great content. Definitely do a follow up video.

[IAmTheOnlyLucas]

Great video Professor. This change in policy along with North Korea shelling the waters of a South Korean island which lies within what most observers would classify as North Korean territorial waters kicked off 2024 with a bang on the peninsula. With the Juche monarchy on its 2nd heir who is not in the best of health, I believe that any collapse of the DPRK will happen as a result of instability before the coronation of the Party’s third heir. Worth noting is that there’s not a clear male to take over when Jong Eun is incapacitated. Kim’s powerful sister, Yo Jong, is a candidate. North Korea watchers also noted last year the introduction of Jong Eun’s young daughter into the public eye.

[XerxesGammon]

Im curious how did the North vs South languages diverge? Isn't it the same dialect?

[scottodhonnchu]

James, in regards to to North Korean collapse scenario, do you think China would send in troops to prop up some friendly regime, even if the regime is incredibly unpopular? Given that N Koreans are constantly reminded of the horrors of the Korean War, would they want a S Korean regime to rule them? I think China likes the status quo, and would want to orevent that, but theyd also not want a clash between Chinese ans S Korean troops due to their relations with the US. What do you think James?

[slovokia]

Wasn’t the thought of reunification on the part of the North Korean leadership always going to occur on their terms - i.e. that South Korea would eventually become part of the territory ruled over by the North Korean leadership?

[StoneCresent]

For the past few years, my understanding was that a complete unification was impossible due to widening cultural and economic differences. The north would end up in a similar position as former East Germany but worse. Some form of confederation may technically be possible but that will require someone to make major concessions.