Is a coup against Putin underway? | Dr Neil Melvin

“As things have started to go quite badly for Russia, there have been rumours of discontent among some of the security services.”

Is a coup against Putin underway? Kait Borsay and Jenny Kleeman ask the Director of International Security Studies at RUSI on #TimesRadio.
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[teosto]

Lack of Russian electricity in Finland is merely a small nuisance. Currently around 20% of our electricity is outsourced and Russia's share of that 20% is even smaller. Finnish households are ok electricity wise and it's mostly the big industries that rely on outsourced electricity.

It was estimated that Finland would become entirely independent from outsourced electricity somewhere during 2024, if not even at the end of 2023. With what's been happening in Ukraine recently I bet that schedule will be / has been hastened even more.

[michaelwray]

This will go down in history as the totally avoidable war.

[CyberBeep_kenshi]

One can hope for a coup, but i wouldn't count on it. He spent decades preparing and securing himself. Would be nice though....

[mspicer]

Russian casualties are actually a pretty high proportion of their total Army strength. The Russian Army has about 660, 000 of the nearly million-man armed forces. Casualties in Ukraine for Russia are estimated at 12-15, 000 killed, at least twice that many wounded. That's in the ballpark of around 5.5% of the armies strength, with most of that being the very best they had, lost in the first days. Losses among officers have also been disproportionate and the glaring structural problems of the Russian military have been laid bare.
The Ukrainians aren't about to surrender, which means Russia is bound to lose, sooner or later. Whether a withdrawal like from Afganistan, or a collapse from within. Ukraine is the place Russia was born, centuries ago in Kievan Rus, and Ukraine will be the rock upon which Russia breaks herself.

[aenorist]

Also laughable that russia under sanctions can sustain a prolonged war. If the west offers even just half-assed support, the outsized economic power they wield means russia will be outspent by at least an order of magnitude. They can sustain that for a few months un-mobilized, maybe a year or so mobilized (if the regime survives that long) before the sheer weight of material crushes the combat ability of what remains of the russian army at that point.

Ukraine (if sustained by the west) will be on pretty modern nato standard stuff. Russia at that point will have to dig up T34s, which are about as useful in a modern war as a Toyota pickup ... no, worse actually. Their "modern" equipment is already woefully inadequate (VDV elites without optics etc), and while russia has immense stockpiles, its stockpiles of probably-defunct trash.

[larshansson]

This time it is different. Ukraine supported by west countries got an enormous supply of weapons. In the same time Russian military production is almost halted, at least in terms of modern equipment due to sanctions. This will be decisive in the long run.

[jhofster]

There still seems to be a residual over-estimation of the Russian army.

[MG-Nordster]

What is being missed here, is the COST of the losses of equiipment. Every tank is at least a $ 1 million to replace, (at the lowest level), airplanes are 30-40 mil, ships are hundreds of millions for large ones. You have armaments that are being blown up, etc.... the cost of this war is already at numbers that Russian economy cannot easily replace. EVEN if the Russians win, their fighting forces are so weakened, they won't pose a threat to their neighbors any longer. well... for at least 10 yrs.

[ltyr-mrif]

I disagree. Russia cannot sustain these loses for months and even years. It has small economy, and limited industrial capacity to replace all its lost equipment, especially with the sanctions. AND its command and control and logistics are terrible, as are its weapons. Putin is facing defeat.

[Dani-itsy]

Get Putin out of the way, put hands in the air, say sorry, let Finland, Sweden and Ukraine join NATO (which is no threat to Russia unless they are the one that starts invading) and we can all continue in a respectful matter. It would be the best thing for both parties.

[grisall]

This is in contrast to what other experts say. The number of tanks lost in just a few months would take 3 years of production to replace if the western sourced parts were available. Their equipment reserves are older less capable units that have been poorly maintained - 65% of their military is devoted to Ukraine and 25+% of that has been degraded etc etc - Russia can't keep that up long term. People from St Petersburg and Moscow are largely excluded from the draft - When they start tapping into that crowd for cannon fodder the opinion polls will change

[KIA-MIA-POW]

Health issues, real or not, will be the reason Putin will go. The Russian military is in total disarray and the generals have lost copious amounts of face.

[gimlisonofgloin]

“Don’t poke the Russian bear” has always been a saying.
Ukraine has shown the world that the Russian bear has no teeth

[kiae-nirodiariesencore]

So Russia has an army of about a million it can call on in theory, so with only 150, 000 (est) in Ukraine it would seem they can bring a lot more to the conflict....but can they? They are losing so much equipment that any new manpower being drafted in will be poorly equipped. Today the head of Ukraine armed forces says they have another million men and women civilian volunteers ready to be armed and trained. They are angry and highly motivated which as Napoleon said about Morale v Material is where wars are won and lost. Russian army doesn’t have the motivation or the discipline. They will lose this, sans doubt.

[steve]

Yes they stopped the electricity.. we only had 10t% of our electricity from Russia so it seems all is normal still here in the helsinki area

[tolrem]

He's missing two points.One is that the Russian military might not be defeated on the battlefield, but the economy might collapse behind it, as with Germany in WW1:not to mention growing anger by families over troop losses.Second, in the Chechen wars there was no massive NATO military aid going to the Chechens.

[ianwilson]

The honourable doctor is living in the 20th Century as far as his analysis of Russia's military capabilities. Russia is fighting a 20th Century war against a foe that is technologically and strategically placed firmly in the 21st Century. Further to that, it does not have limitless numbers of soldiers to throw at Ukraine, its logistical base is non-existent and its weaponry is out of date. Add in a lack of morale, a turgid and stultifying command structure and a complete lack of vision - other than wiping out Ukraine - and you have a very unequal war.

[GrizzlysEye]

Russia may have a large army but the West has not stomped its foot on it yet.

[philipwan]

I disagree with Dr Melvin in that the Caucasus war was with small & weak countries ans Syria was completely different. Ukraine can make their own weapons, has fairly modern army, has proven themselves against the Nazis in WWII, and Western help they can grind down Russia especially with the West (including Japan, Korea, NA, Australia, etc) sanctioning Russia. Russia's GDP is not even in the top ten. Their weapons are old. If the West can help Ukraine destroy the Black Sea fleet, Russia will be in greater trouble. In short, Russia is bleeding and transfusion is slow and awkward.

[mickydee]

It’s one thing to engage in a war of attrition when you have a strong economy backing you up. It’s quite something else when your economy is crashing behind you. Russia is running out of time and can’t sustain a long conflict.