The REAL Reason Unemployment Is Going Up | Jim Bianco

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Bianco Advisors joins Monetary Matters to share his views on inflation, the labor market, and bonds. Bianco argues that the reason the unemployment rate has gone up is because the large amount of immigration into the U.S. has increased the labor force. Bianco makes the case that inflation is headed higher and bond yields now are probably headed higher. Recorded on October 14, 2024.

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Chapters:
00:00 Intro
01:28 Why Rates Are Up
08:16 What's Driving Unemployment
21:02 The Labor Market's Effect on Inflation
30:51 Strong Wage Growth
34:48 Bianco Research's Bond Market Positioning
45:53 The Explosion of Bond ETFs
48:53 TIPS
53:08 "The Golden Age of Private Credit"
01:08:04 Banks and CRE Exposure
01:15:13 2024 Presidential Election: Who's Better for Inflation?
01:17:55 Consumer Credit Health

[nandojuace]

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[NeonPolygon]

During recessions, rising unemployment, and inflation, traditional assets often lose value, making it hard to protect wealth. Cryptocurrencies offer a decentralized alternative with the potential for high returns, helping investors diversify and reduce reliance on traditional markets. Special thanks to Loraine Souvenir for her expertise in guiding others through these challenging financial times.

[I_Love_Figs]

Full-time employment is down. In absolute numbers. Multiple job holders up. Part-time employment up. Courtesy of FRED.

[PolicyFailureIsExpensive]

"I can only pay you as much as your current expenses are because if I enable you to have any savings whatsoever, you will buy too much stuff." 31:50
"Anyway, how is my portfolio doing?"

[bitmau]

Always great to listen to Jim. Thanks, Jack!

[TexasRiverRat]

A few years ago all we heard on MSM was employers complaining that they couldn't fill 9 million open jobs, mostly low skill, low wage service sector jobs. So they let in 11 million people to fill those and that leaves 2 million people that aren't considered "unemployed" and the balance are the folks that were born here that gave up looking a couple years ago so they're no longer showing up in the numbers. Yes. The big corporations won't take the chance on illegals BUT are using sub contractors that have no problem hiring the cheapest labor available. Like most people at his level he's in a bubble and believes that employers actually use e verify before hiring someone with good looking fake documentation. I know this from first hand experience in Texas.

[davidanalyst]

Jim is a great guy. i basically watch all of his interviews and every now and then i hear him on the JPmorgan conference call. okay, i hear him on every jpmorgan conference call lolz

[georgelien]

I always love to hear what Jim has to say

[bluedsuit]

oh nice, another episode. i love this guy, oh and Jim as well.

[mccannger]

I’m hedging by using the Golden Butterfly portfolio.

Including gold to hedge against inflation seems prudent given what Jim is saying.

For now I have kept the bonds side of it fully in short term government bonds. Will think about moving out the curve middle of next year.

I think diversification is so important right now. There are so many diverging views about inflation versus disinflation and growth versus the opposite.

It’s just so hard to be all in any one asset class right now!

Thanks for a great interview with a great guest!

[Carol-cbyu]

I know of a recent illegal immigrant that came over the boarder this year and now is in Chicago working in an EV factory. Jim is on the ball.

[torsteinlunde]

More unemployment is deflationary independently of whether it comes from more people or less jobs.

[mb]

Companies will put up jobs just to gather information and pump up their stock. They don't necessarily mean that they are actually hiring. Btw great interview. Jim has many interesting things to say.

[davidgardner]

Inflation expectation isn't the only reason why the long end of the curve goes up.

Could also be because that money is chasing yield in equities, therefore, leaving the bond market causing rates to go up. Everyone thinks we're going to get a bull run in stocks. This is a more logical explanation.

Excellent interview though!

[dlukton]

I don't know what sort of returns Jim Bianco is getting in his fund; but there are "fees on top of fees"; and he's got to overcome that headwind. If I were a bond investor, I'd just go with some "plain vanilla" corporate bond index fund with a low management fee.

[edwinpink]

You say we do not know how many migrants are in the U.S. but they are getting picked up on employment numbers? A lot of this does not make sense. And as far as migrants not having SS numbers, my wife works for a major company (she is Hispanic) and helps train these migrants that cannot speak English. Most of them have fake SS numbers as the company requires those numbers. That is a major problem in the US that is not being addressed. But that is another topic.

[WorshipDaKing]

great show, but you need a better channel thumbnail/logo, something more vibrant and eye catching, but nonetheless you are great!

[luciaconk]

How do you feel about the bitcoin ETF?

[aHumanMaybe]

>still thinking you're buying exotics for 150-200k
LMAO

[arati]

what about online busines sector? does the economic data include that at all ?