I Built a Model for 2.5 / 2.6 / 2.7 Rerun Predictions in Honkai Star Rail

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#honkaistarrail #hoyocreators #eodgamer

[fodnrtnd]

i think the resetting end game modes also adds to the factor of who's gonna have a rerun.

[Sidabundai]

If this is true, then Aventurine will rerun on Christmas day

[Than]

I'm just kind of lowkey hoping that they'll do 3 limited banners soon, at the rate they are going, older and older characters like Seele and Silver Wolf may as well be phased out completely. Granted, power creep is an issue so there's less reason to even have their limited banners come back but then again, I don't see the harm in having 3 limited banners at a time either, especially if one of those three banners contain one of the older characters that are less popular.

[Me-iodl]

if Aventurine is coming much later in terms of patches then i got more time to save for him XD!!! one step closer to finishing my IPC team

[games-dan]

I hadn’t quite realized in my head how soon Acheron is likely to rerun, and I definitely don’t want to miss pulling her again. But I believe this prediction is probably correct or close enough. So I think I’ll have to skip Huohuo, I had wanted her for my Kafka/BS team but I could do triple nihility with a preservation/Trend LC sustain instead once I get Acheron. Might even be able to pull for Acheron’s LC if I start saving now.

[saltyismymiddlename]

Firefly prediction might be true since we don't have another superbreak harmony rn other than HMC. They might as well put FF and the new char with superbreak enabler close to eachother

[leasting]

What I'm hearing is I really should skip the next 2 patches to save up for Robin... Didn't realize the harmony characters were rerunning so fast! Even then if Sunday releases I'm borderline cooked lol. AND I wanted Ratio's LC, the most unpredictable rerun schedule of them all

[marcjohnaquino]

I really love your predictions bro. Keep it up!

[StarryniteTrist]

Omg robin sooner than I expected and needing to have lots of stroller jades for Sunday

[sanctamachina]

9:00 feels bad being a Boothill stan. I couldn't finish pulling his light cone and it's been pain. I need it now.

[amirulaiman]

I noticed that since 2.2, 1st half of each patch, the new character and rerun character have really good synergies.

2.2- Robin & Topaz
2.3 - Firefly & Ruan Mei
2.4 - Yunli & Huohuo

I don't know if Hoyo did this intentionally but they always put two characters with good synergies within a patch. I think they are going to continue this trend.

[spiritmuse]

I would not be surprised if Aventurine came back a little earlier than the average sustain, simply because of how popular he was. I am hoping, anyway, I missed him on his first appearance and I really want to have him 😅

[Rietto]

This kind of data crunching is really interesting to me, plus it helps to plan savings which is super helpful. Even if it's not 100% accurate, just getting a feel for how much time there is so build up jades is really useful.

[Spoderfok]

Debunking black swan and acheron in 2.5. They never do all female banners for a patch cycle. It's most likely ratio + one of those.

[gloomvision]

there was a leak recently about a new banner type (potentially starting in 2.5)

there will be the main banner with the new five star, and then a rerun banner with three selectable options, like the one in HI3

this means we’re likely getting six reruns per patch instead of two.

[howsitgoing]

Interesting model and cool to know that you have a money channel too.

[LeoDragoGR]

They will most likely not do 4 female in 2.5 unless they REALLY need sales. Acheron is going to sell a lot even on a rerun. But most cases it’ll be Dr. Ratio or Aventurine w Blackswan. Dr. Ratio will imo make or break future banner predictions since his situation is so weird. His banner didn’t sell well and was carried by Kafka’s rerun. He was also given for free so having him become obtainable essentially 3 times in less than a 12 month span is crazy. In terms of sales wise idk how well Dr. Ratio will sell. Is there a demand for him over aventurine? Or another unit. Business wise he’s not bringing in a lot. If anything they could put him alongside Lingsha to just elevate her banner even more since she’s more appealing to pull but that would be petty lol

[HazZzel-]

Wanna get Jiaoqiu+ lc, then Robin + lc, then Sunday e2 + lc. I always pull for enjoyment and its a tradition to get my favourites their lcs

[bloodmay]

I don't think they will put Acheron in the same patch as Feixiao. I think they will go with 2nd rerun of some characters like maybe Blade or Silver Wolf to pad it out, and a patch or two patches after Feixiao they will rerun Acheron, which in turn means Firefly's rerun would be pushed further away as well. This model takes into account only timings, while I think Hoyo takes into account projected sales more. So I think they will try to spread out high grossing banners, and pair them with lower estimated ones.

[lumikarhu]

Silver Wolf and mommy, and black swan