Taiwan Elections in 2024: Who is Running and What to Expect

December 15, 2023 — Ahead of Taiwan’s landmark presidential election on January 13, 2024, Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) hosts a webinar covering the profiles of candidates, insights into the upcoming elections, and the eventual outcomes. Participants include Simona Grano, senior fellow on Taiwan at ASPI’s Center for China Analysis and author of the paper “The 2024 Taiwanese Elections: A Primer;” and Rorry Daniels, managing director at ASPI. Lyle Morris, senior fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security at ASPI’s Center for China Analysis, moderates the conversation. (57 min., 12 sec.)

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#asiasociety #asiasocietypolicyinstitute #taiwan #china #geopolitics #TaiwanElections

[KGold]

Good discussion. Give Rorry more airtime in the next one of these. One point on where the analogy with Ukraine falls apart, which neither brought up (though they might have, with more time) is that Ukraine is connected by land to neighboring countries whereas Taiwan is an island over 100 miles off the coast of Mainland China and further from neighboring countries like Japan and the Philippines. This would make the prospect of invasion nightmarish for the local Taiwanese people who can’t escape as refugees, as well as the PRC who, quite frankly, don’t want to kill masses of their own people. Taiwan is 95% Han Chinese by ethnicity. The language is Mandarin. Cultures are still similar. I don’t see an invasion coming anytime soon if ever, unless Taiwan declared formal independence. More importantly, Taiwanese don’t want to suffer in such a conflict. Thus, I think presidents who offer more stability and dialogue with Beijing will be favored. KMT offers such a president for the people of Taiwan.

[gstlb]

Those of us who love irony can't help but notice the CCP support of the KMT in these elections. I guess it's a choice between a party that wants to take Taiwan toward independence and the KMT, who (in the eyes of the CCP) might be eventually convinced to move toward unification. I remember though that the KMT, at least until fairly recently, considered itself to be the real and rightful government of *all* of China. 🙃

[beatriceko]

"...Ukraine people and military have organized so quickly and strongly..." ~ Is she delusional??? Taiwanese will not make the same mistakes.

[gstlb]

Kudos to Simona for pronouncing Beijing correctly (hard j, there is no soft j sound in Chinese). I’m not sure why Americans can’t do this, but most can’t, apparently. 😂 otherwise it’s a very nice discussion, thanks!