Math All But Guarantees A Recession By 2025 | Steve Hanke

When today's expert was last on this program back in March, he predicted we'll see sub-2% inflation AND a recession by the end of this year.

Since then, headline CPI has remained stubbornly "sticky" above 3%

So, is 2% (or less) inflation by December still his forecast?

Or have conditions changed?

To find out, we have the good fortune to sit down and get a full update today from Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland

#inflation #recession #federalreserve

0:00-15:25 Steve's Latest Inflation Prediction
15:26-32:44 Is DEFLATION The Bigger Threat
32:45-40:44 Buy Long-Dated Treasurys?
40:45- 55:48 Steve's Favored Assets
55:49-1:00:26 Steve's Big Life Lessons
1:00:27 New Harbor Market Recap
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[joycekoch]

My 5th grade kids got me hooked on Steve Hanke. Their friends who come over sit around and watch his videos daily
and just zone out hardly even touching the milk and cookies I leave by the computer. They have their school notebooks
and write lots of notes.

[DrBlood-cqcm]

Guest: "If the governor of the NZ central bank is not hitting the target inflation, he's vulnerable to being fired."
Adam: "Has a NZ bank governor ever been fired for missing inflation targets?"
Guest: "Uh, no".

Then why bring this up?

[rolfsteiner]

Fed will inflate us all the way to a CBDC devaluation

[jvin]

Adam, Steve is great, but his idea about land being the best investment; my grandmother who lived through the Great Depression trying to keep a farm together to support fourteen people relying on it was "you can't eat dirt", and then just try skipping property taxes for a few years and you find out you don't really own the land; you are just renting it until such time you can't pay your rent and you get kicked off. So how do you ensure you can pay your property taxes? That likely involves a bit of gold. Imagine herding six pigs to city hall "here's your taxes". They wouldn't know what to do. So land is speculating as much as anything else.

[jasona]

This recession is one slooow moving train.. we’ve been talking about for 3 years

[johnmichaelkarma]

2% inflation!? that's some funny chit

[stargazer]

Adam, lower income people have been in depression financials since covid19 hit in 2020, just waiting for the other shoe to fall.

[roddywoods]

The market's direction can swiftly change, with indexes frequently transitioning from a bear market to a bull market precisely when the news is most negative and investor sentiment reaches its lowest point.

[bp]

I happened to click during the "premier" but I'll have to come back when I can click 2x for Hanke. BTW, it might be interesting to get a short debate between Hanke and Keith Weiner on the "always and everywhere" debate.

[NewCreationInChrist]

Jesus is coming!
Romans 10:13
“For “whoever calls on the name of the Lord [in prayer] will be saved.”

[hectorchomat]

Adam two thoughts on this video
1- With yesterday's inflation report, Steve nailed it.
2- I loved your video with Michael Bordenaro. I finally get to see a video where you are the one being interviewed. Good stuff in that video.

[Mike_Phoutrides]

Baltimore is the Paris of the USA. Literally loled. Appreciate you Adam.

[Fenwick_Ales]

You had me until "Baltimore is the Paris of America. "😂

[jvin]

That's a great story by Steve of a kid on the farm not escaping the commodity price and weather radio reports. That's how I grew up too.

[jimmythetulip]

You've been saying this for a while
Give it a rest.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day....

[jeffee]

lol tell us something we haven’t known for a couple years now. Also, my bet is depression not recession. Good luck everyone.

[jerrysteffy]

Have to disagree. Non monetary forces also play into inflation. Post Covid, the demand for spending was high combined with supply chain chaos. This definitely exacerbated the expansive money supply issues. It was a perfect storm of variables that led to 9.1% inflation at one point. Consumer sentiment
and behaviors certainly plays a role. Reigning in spending significantly becomes deflationary in nature.

[Fifamud]

I have a theory, and it is valid in some cases, turned to be close this time also. I am holding Visa so I noticed a pattern that is correct sometimes. V & MA tend to sell 3-4 months before the rest of the market. This is why I was expecting this sell off. Now the question is to what extent. If V & MA keep selling off like in 2022, I think the rest of the market will do the same. I might be wrong, but it is an observation.
Add to this weak oil prices in summer, drop in copper prices. High gold prices.... :)
May be something is coming, just observations.

[danksiny]

Adam, continue to be a pit bull and hold your guests feet to the fire with your projection questions. They gain a great deal of value from the audience you built 100k and counting.

[issenvan]

He talks about price, but why not about the price of money nearly as often?