Forecasting Principles & Practice: 2.5 Seasonal subseries plots

preview_player
Показать описание
Рекомендации по теме
Комментарии
Автор

I have always wondered: What is ... the point? I mean, let's say you recognize that your trend is caused by changes in q4. Does this realization have any impact on your process of choosing a good forecasting model, like in the case of Arima where you are trying to minimize either the error on your validation set, or some information criteria like AICc? What has plotting and understanding the data actually achieved for you, when the model selection process is seemingly presented as some sort of grid search you do?

tacticisacting
Автор

How will the subseries plot look in case of no seasonality?

tusharsawhney