Will Xi Jinping accept Trump's invite to his inauguration?

Global geopolitics have reached a pivotal moment as Donald Trump prepares for his second term as U.S. President, offering what many consider a critical opportunity to reset U.S. foreign policy. Under Joe Biden, U.S. foreign relations were strained, pushing global tensions to the brink of WW3. Trump's presidency may mark a shift, especially in relations with key players like China, Russia, and Europe. At the heart of this reset is the pressing question of whether Xi Jinping will accept Trump’s invitation to his inauguration, signaling a potential thaw in China-U.S. relations and begin a global reset.
In the Middle East, Israel, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, has demonstrated resilience against Iran and its proxies, including the Houthis, while tensions persist around Iran's nuclear ambitions. Experts argue that another Israeli strike on Iran may be inevitable, given the recent escalation in attacks. Meanwhile, the conflict in Gaza continues to stall Trump’s plans for Israel-Saudi normalization, a cornerstone of his Middle East strategy.
On the European front, the German federal election on February 25 will determine whether Europe can benefit from Trump's proposed global reset. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD) are positioned as key players in forming a coalition that could stabilize Germany's economic and geopolitical trajectory. However, the influence of the Green Party and the rise of the populist AfD complicate this equation. Success for Germany’s mainstream parties could bolster the euro and positively impact European markets in 2025.
The Ukraine war, now in its third year, continues to shape NATO’s focus, with Russia, under Vladimir Putin, gaining ground. Putin’s strategic maneuvers and sheer will have kept Russia competitive against NATO's resources, fueling debates about leadership and historical forces. Tolstoy’s "War and Peace," with its exploration of determinism versus free will, feels particularly relevant as the outcomes of individual leadership—Trump, Putin, and Netanyahu—play pivotal roles in shaping global events.
Economic implications loom large. Trump’s threats of additional tariffs on Chinese goods unless Beijing curbs the fentanyl crisis add another layer of complexity to U.S.-China relations. The fentanyl issue has implicated Mexico, with Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico's president, cracking down on production. Meanwhile, global markets are watching closely. An improved U.S.-China relationship could benefit emerging market assets, while heightened tensions could send oil prices soaring and bond markets lower.
As the inauguration nears, Trump’s strategies—whether in addressing the fentanyl crisis, fostering U.S.-China cooperation, or resolving Middle Eastern conflicts—could significantly impact global markets and geopolitics. His efforts to balance risk-taking and diplomacy will test his administration's ability to execute a successful reset.
In 2025, the geopolitical chessboard remains fraught with uncertainty. Key events, from Germany's election to Israel's next moves against Iran, will influence global risk premiums, particularly in oil prices. Leaders like Trump, Xi, Putin, and Netanyahu have positioned themselves as pivotal figures, proving that individual will and strategy can alter the course of history. Whether these efforts lead to stability or further conflict will shape the global order for years to come. David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
#GlobalGeopolitics #USChinaRelations #MiddleEastTensions

Useful links:

[gregwong]

Why bother? After the negotiations and trump signs the agreement, he can come to Beijing to celebrate