Why is it “There’s a 10% chance of rain” instead of “It will be sunny tomorrow”? (Tim Palmer)

The Michael Shermer Show # 302

Why does your weather app say “There’s a 10% chance of rain” instead of “It will be sunny tomorrow”? In large part this is due to the insight of Tim Palmer, who made uncertainty essential to the study of weather and climate. Now he wants to apply it to how we study everything else.

In The Primacy of Doubt, Palmer argues that embracing the mathematics of uncertainty is vital to understanding ourselves and the universe around us. Whether we want to predict climate change or market crashes, understand how the brain is able to outpace supercomputers, or find a theory that links quantum and cosmological physics, Palmer shows how his vision of mathematical uncertainty provides new insights into some of the deepest problems in science. The result is a revolution—one that shows that power begins by embracing what we don’t know.

Shermer and Palmer discuss: doubt and skepticism • when doubt slides into denial • uncertainty as a measurement problem vs. inherent in natural systems • contingency and necessity, randomness and law • the butterfly effect • the geometry of chaos • quantum uncertainty • weather forecasting • climate change • pandemics • economic recessions • human decision making and creativity • free will • consciousness, and God.

Tim Palmer, FRS (Fellow of the Royal Society), CBE (Commander of the Order of the British Empire) is a Royal Society Research Professor in the department of physics at the University of Oxford. He pioneered the development of operational ensemble weather and climate forecasting, and in 2007, he was formally recognized as having contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Nobel Peace Prize. Palmer is a Commander of the British Empire, a fellow of the Royal Society and the National Academy of Sciences, and a recipient of the Institute of Physics’ Dirac Gold Medal. He lives near Oxford, UK.

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[jeffersonianideal]

1:11:36
The reason for the earth receiving fewer hours of sunlight is because during the 6-month period Dr. Palmer made reference to, the earth begins to incrementally "turn its back" to the sun.

[jeffersonianideal]

1:42:35
The juncture into the woo-woo zone.

[jeffersonianideal]

1:23:21
There is, at least, one other alternate viewpoint to hold. A person can be a climate change non-alarmist.

[JCResDoc]

*1:55:30** unless the orthodoxy is, in an important way, entirely wrong, shermer, * & you are going to walk down collecting the same blocks, by knowing what has already been done - plus ... its already been done. _JC

[JCResDoc]

1:21:00 complete misunderstanding of covid models & the data collection that went into them. (not that he couldnt sort it out, he just hasnt bothered. like most ppl w these skill sets. which is a little unforgivable? thr is a bit of a responsibility to use the skills you have before cmting? & err towards helping people & protecting rights & stopping profiteering? maybe?) _JC

[JCResDoc]

1:14:00 *cloud forcing* & why it matrs we arent modelling them (or anything) very well. nor even pretending to do anything that would matr even taking everything as read (& some catastrophizing. like wo healthcare or real dollar adjusted minimum wage any of the bs matrs in the slightest) _JC

[JCResDoc]

*1:53:00** we dont know what "prepared" is, my dear shermer, that is the point. no1 knows the path to success* (tho i actually largely agree w this point. but i kida agree w me too? kinda both.) _JC

[JCResDoc]

*28:00** quantum neurons run on energy derivatives from sub micron blackholes, that exists for fraction of a milisecond, * i solved it when i fixed einstein. ill email you. _JC

[TracyPicabia]

Haven't read the book but I'm assuming hes a lot better at writing than speaking, in much the same way as a fractal image illustrates chaos theory a lot better than a Dr Gluck twats on about it on a podcast 🤔

[JCResDoc]

*1:25:00** an entirely adequate climate change bullet point* (one of his primary specialties) _JC

[JCResDoc]

35:40 thats why you always red team. some interesting thoughts. _JC

[JCResDoc]

1:01:00 chaos theory, butterfly fx & threshold fx. _JC

[Doutsoldome]

Physicist, here. This was a fascinating conversation. Thank you.

[frun]

I think the world is classical, but with the fractal field in euclidean space. It follows from the hydrodynamic quantum analogs. There is also a need to calculate the speed of light. The analogy goes like this: speed of sound = speed of light, many body system(condensate) = empty space(vacuum), collective excitations (sound) = matter.

[jerbib]

Why is it “There’s a 10% chance of rain” instead of “It will be sunny tomorrow”? (Tim Palmer)

For very good reasons. Just ask a meteorologist.

[TracyPicabia]

'Wondrium' has to be the dumbest name for anything in the history of the names for everything

[JCResDoc]

*38:00** also, pick an instrument pal, who are you trying to impress?* im sorry, i should unplug the keyboard sometimes, i know that. i just always need more input. evn dbl speed (& i dont believe in ADHD, so.) besides, thr are less acceptable things i could be doing w my hands while listening to lectures. Zoom taught us that. _JC

[bon]

On doubt. There was a paper published recently to suggest that the QED theory could problematic. There were various comments by Pauli, Feynman himself, and Dyson relating to this problem. It relates primarily to a sum which was assumed finite but actually infinite. Sorry I cant comment further.

[fractalnomics]

32:21 1:09:58 climate models chaos claim

[MrBallynally]

Around 1.15 he tries very hard to bridge uncertainty with probability but then gets into trouble simplifying the complex variables to be able to make sense of predictability. That is exactly the wall every climate expert and/or physicist runs into. The issue for me is that the type of proposed climate measures will likely lead to massive deaths in the forseeable future as opposed to the ones we might save 50 years from now. It would be very ironic if we look back in 20 years with much better data at the insane way this panic virus spreadvto all institutions. There wilk be history lessons tracking it back to the late 60s, Gaia theory, population bomb, the UN, 1992 and especially 2014 where the virus gained momentum and eventually lead to the break down of civilization..