It's Official: Unemployment Is About to Hit the Fan

A whole bunch of bad data, much of it focused on deterioration in the US labor market (pre-July payrolls). That unleashed huge swings in rates markets and forward rates. One reason for all this is the historical pattern is perfectly clear. What we're seeing right now happens EVERY TIME. No exceptions.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

FOMC Monetary Policy Statement

Federal Reserve Chair Powell Press Conference July 31

[nicolasbenson]

Unemployment is an odd concept in an economy where for so many folks it’s necessary to work multiple jobs just to get by. Loose one and you’re counted as employed but suddenly don’t have enough money to live.

[GillerHeston]

Don't have a job = can't afford housing.
Have a job = can't afford housing.
So why have a job?

[whoopsiedoodle]

Remember you only count as unemployed for the first bit.

Eventually you aren't counted, job or not

[SaratogaontheAT]

Outstanding as always. You blow the doors off; CNBC, Bloomberg, FOX Business etc. They are a joke.

[zvvl]

It’s like landing a plane with no wheels, it’s soft up until the point it touches down 🤣

[mikemarshall]

Safe and effective...😊
Inflation is transient...😅😅
Soft landing...😂😂😂
This time is different...😂😆😅🤣🤣🤣🤣

[rnskfamily]

They are laying off 45+ yr Olds In middle management making 150k +. Looking to hire college grads for 60k or outsource to Mumbai for 6k. Tough decisions to make for Whitemen sitting inside glassdoors.

[hymansahak]

Part of the big plan: fleece whatever is left from the middle class.

[yoshu]

The state of the job market has been awful for a while now. Just people have tried to ride it out and nothing has changed. It's demoralizing as hell when you know half the job postings aren't even real. If you get an interview at all there's going to be 6 or more rounds of it that will likely end in rejection. And to top it off thousands of people are all applying for a single position.

[ericweber]

Fast food industry and restaurants are going out of biasness!

[whaleinvesting]

Extremely informative. This is so much better than any other reporting on macro economy that I ever saw.

[MonetaryRebel]

Excellent video, as always! Thanks so much man. No one goes as in-depth into the data as you do. You are extremely underrated.

[philolson]

I think this is one of your best videos because of its timely relevance and fantastic historical research. Thank you!

[andrewrivera]

And inflation is still raging, wake me up when ribeyes are 8 bucks an lb, gas is at 2 bucks a gallon and a Big Mac meal is 6 bucks!

[countdownxstacy]

“Strike at the stroke of midnight.
Dance on the bones till the girls say when.
Pickup what’s left of daylight, when Josie comes home”

[deseosuho]

I agree. 0.7% unemployment increase above the last unemployment bottom is the breakpoint I came up with as the best timing mechanism for the moment when unemployment goes parabolic, just looking at Fred datasets over the last fifty years. We hit that milestone in June 2024. Expect 150-300 basis points of unemployment increase between now and Christmas 2025.

[uw]

Excellent correlation, I'm convinced with high confidence. The delay for this cycle is caused by global economy and run away spending for the migrant influx and the wars. Now, business people will see their business is not holding up and will save their jobs by massive layoff. This negatice feedback loop is what we shall experience soon.

[GamessoslOol]

about to ? unemployment's been 15-20% for years. The books are cooked so why use numbers you know are garbage?

[brianjohnson]

Good graph presentation. The Sheeples aren't going to like what comes next. Strong & Resilient is what you want your woman to say about you, not about the labor market.

[wmpx]

I love your graphics lol how the people creep in slowly from the sides