Tony Seba's Bold Prediction: $11K Cars by 2025, $5K by 2030

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Herbert, can you land a interview with Tony?! Would be EPIC

eschreck
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Tony Seba is the one I listen to for disruption relative to energy/transportation.He has been spot on in his predictions.

davidkendall
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Stick a fork in the legacy auto companies.... they're done!

robzienert
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When you reduce battery cost and/or weight or increase battery capacity it is as if you made a new engine technology, like adding a supercharger or turbocharger or electronic igniton etc. It is different in that it happens more frequently and doesn't require that the carmaker revamp their facilities or supply chains. Doesn't require changes to engine bays or accessories.

stonedog
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Outstanding discussion. I'm so looking forward to the next six years to see what Tesla ushers in by 2030. Thank you both.

tom
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Years and years of no competition made all the car companies basically collude with each other to avoid inovation and lower prices.

gruberjohn
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I'm driving a 2015 Nissan Leaf 🍃 $4000 only 80 Mile range--- definitely see basic EV available in 5 Years in USA

advancedbodydesign
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the opportunity is incredible to buy this stock at such a low price. It is ridiculous that the market doesn’t see what is being built here.

justindalzell
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Put a couple of question marks on BYD's price: (1) BYD is also a battery maker. (2) Complex relationship with government ( (subsidy and free loan). (3) Special government support (subsidy and free loan) for export purpose.

mizhang
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In March 2024, BYD sold 34, 830 Seagull cars. Looks like they have scale up fairly quickly. The car was launched of April 26, 2023

davea
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I don’t understand your estimate. You can’t buy a BYD in the US. Therefore cheapest EV in the US is $28k (the Chevy bolt). 11k by 2025 here makes no sense. 20k by 2025 would be great. What’s the actual US estimate?

bravenkind
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I am confused. Reports about EV batteries in the recent past said the supply of lithium and cadmium was limited to the point that scaling up would make prices go way up. Now, were told battery prices are dropping by 50% ??

joefunsmith
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If the hardware suite is $2, 000 per vehicle today, the cost should drop significantly as volume increases and automakers buy in to the operating system. Soon it will be a no-brainer to drop in house efforts to recreate this operating system. Tesla could charge a few $k for licensing (at 80-90% margin) and still not impact affordability for everyone.

fredhearty
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Hi Herbert. Another thing that short video didn’t mention was the NY building where the Tesla is going to build to place the super computer. I might not have stated that correct but I’m sure you know what I’m talking about 😊 oh yeah, what about The Tesla Bot in the factory as another cost reduction 😮

stevebottle
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BYD compact will take developing countries by storm. Also Europe. Wow, I got goose bumps.

sk.n.
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Tesla is a in-house manufactorer, thats a real manufacturer!

Myrslokstok
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Optimus will make Tony Seba's predictions pale!
Even if AGI is harder than they think, it will be good enough to change the economic growth curve.
That's a new exponential growth curve, not even Tony Seba could have predicted. But he will give us a new one soon, I expect.

larsnystrom
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Thanks for posting. I visited the BYD showroom in Chiang Mai Thailand two months ago and the seagull was selling for $25000 us. Where is the $11000 seagull is not going to happen in N America. Maybe a $11, 000 in china but it will not happen in N America.

briantyhy
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Seems like Tesla is on the right track. It will be interesting to see where the company is five years from now?

darrell
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Moore's Law seems to be applicable to batteries as well as to computer chips. ie doubling the energy content per kilogram and halving the 2 years.

johnfrancis