Israel & Hezbollah: What to expect next | Quick Take

This wave of Israel-Hezbollah attacks is disentangled from Iran, and we saw that the Israelis, of course, were able to assassinate the political leader of Hamas, Haniyeh, who was in Tehran on the occasion of the inauguration of the new Iranian president, deeply embarrassing for the Iranians. It's been a month, and there's been no Iranian retaliation despite the fact that the Supreme leader and others in the Iranian government structure had said that major strikes were coming within hours; that's not the case. Iran is waiting for a window of opportunity to avoid dramatically escalating the feud into a region-wide war, same as Hezbollah.

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

A Quick Take to kick off your week. The Middle East back in the headlines, though fortunately, not as dramatic, a blow-up, as many had feared. This is the Hezbollah-Israel conflict, the Northern front, as it were. And the Israelis had assassinated one of the founders of Hezbollah a month ago, and a lot of concern and waiting as to what Hezbollah would do to respond. We saw that over the weekend, several hundred missiles being launched from Lebanon into Israel. The United States and Israel with advanced intelligence on the coming strikes, and were able to launch preemptive strikes that apparently took out about two-thirds of the missiles that were going to be launched. But Lebanon, Hezbollah continuing going ahead with those strikes and not a lot of damage. Not a lot of damage by the Israelis with the preemptive strikes. A few military dead in Lebanon, and it looks like one Israeli military officer killed from the Hezbollah strikes.

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[maxheadrom]

Rockets were launched from Lebanon, Mr. Bremer - not missiles. The difference is missiles have the ability to change direction mid-flight while rockets can't - it is a huge technological difference.

[foppishdilletaunt]

The very religious Middle East - bringing fun and wisdom to the entire World for centuries !

[kshen]

One of American long term headaches even.

[thomasjgallagher]

Given how impotent the Biden Administration's response to just about any security issue around the world has been, including the aforementioned Houthis in Yemen, I think it's fair to ask if having Jake Sullivan in the White House is just an invitation for our adversaries to attack. He's done a great job making sure Putin doesn't feel threatened, that's for sure. Not sure if there's an Irish-American more afraid of a fight than the one that is our national security advisor.

[ldolgin]

It is important to consider that the initial blow in this volley had been a Hezbollah rocket borage that targeted a group of kids who were playing soccer resulting in the deaths of a dozen children. The Israeli’s then executed the Hezbollah military chief in Beirut in retaliation.

[matthewlevine]

Neither Hezbollah nor Hamas is a state, and both of Hezbollah and Hamas are Iranian proxies in territories that are controlled by failed states. Fascinating that Mr Bremmer thinks that "this is disentangled from Iran". Nevertheless, the "geo-strategic" conclusions he draws out from around minute 4 are instructive.

[xdavood]

"if a war breaks out Hezbollah gets destroyed" ... ok, if that's the case, why Israel hasn't destroyed Hezbollah during the past several decades? Is Israel escalation-shy?

[matematleta]

More blurbs for clicks. These shorits should be relegated to the YT short sections, or simply discarded as spam.

[Plotinus]

Damn dude. Just be objective. You're other stuff is so good. But when it' comes to Israel you say nothing about genocide and apartheid.... geez

[samthomas]

Usually you're reporting is very accurate, but to say that Hezbollah only targeted military sites is outrageous. They destroyed a house in Akko and a chicken coop on a kibbutz that both are nowhere nearanything military