The Big Picture - The Afghanistan Puzzle & India

India on Sunday welcomed the power-sharing deal announced by Afghanistan between President Ashraf Ghani and his rival Abdullah Abdullah, which ended months of political discord triggered by last year’s disputed presidential election. The Ministry of External Affairs said India hoped the political agreement and creation of a council for national reconciliation will result in renewed efforts for establishing enduring peace and stability, and putting an end to externally-sponsored terrorism and violence in Afghanistan. According to the deal, Ghani will stay as the president while Abdullah will helm the High Council of National Reconciliation (HCNR) with executive authority and his team will have a 50 per cent share in the cabinet. The HCNR has been mandated to lead future peace talks, including with the Taliban. On this edition of the Big Picture we analyse the Afghan situation and India.

Guests -
1- Shakti Sinha, Foreign Affairs Expert
2- Vivek Katju, Former Ambassador
3- Maj. Gen. Shashi Asthana (Retd.), Strategic Expert

Anchor - Frank Rausan Pereira

Producer - Sagheer Ahmad

[belated_khabar]

KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR LEARNERS AND MAY BE FOR UPSC ASPIRANTS TOO:

Power sharing deal between President Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, Taliban, and Indian perspective.
* Taliban has informally been conveying that it is hostile to Indian interests, if Indian side recognises Taliban's legitimacy in Afghanistan.
* Diplomatically, India should consider not shunning all stakeholders, including Taliban, in Afghanistan and India should become valuable development partner.
* India should insist on Taliban not to play as Pakistani proxy and dissuade from anti Indian interests, through formal diplomatic channels, considering present mellowed down global perspective towards Taliban.
* Afghanistan is important for India for getting connected to Central Asian Republics, which are hydrocarbon rich. On the other hand, chahbhar port in Iran is also instrumental for connectivity to CAR via Afghanistan.
* India should capitalise on its strengths like being the important power in the region and extract a fair deal with all stakeholders in Afghanistan.
* With changing times, we have to change the strategies and engagement with all stakeholders is the name of the game.
* India should play an instrumental role in peace between Afghan elites and Taliban.
* We have to watch our interests carefully.
* Deal between Ghani and Abdullah is the deal of survival of them.
* We have to be beware of lower rung cadres of Taliban and try todissuade them from radicalisation and influence of ISKP.
* We have to keep in confidence different ethic groups like pashtoons.
* Role of Iran, Russia, and Taliban needs to be watched cautiously.
* International North South corridor is very important for India.

[Balam-Thanedar]

Amb. Vivek katju is really good with explanation.

[ABTX]

It's said that in international diplomacy, either you are on the table or on the menu.

[prakharpathak]

Ambassador Vivek Katju has as an exceptional acumen when it comes to international diplomacy. RSTV should request him to come more often for such discussions.

[Invinciblewarrior]

I think now a days only serious upsc aspirant are watching the big picture

[Balam-Thanedar]

Lockdown with Frank sir
Really appreciated.

[Indiawaalechacha]

Important points
- Afghanistan power sharing deal is cause of survival and recent evolving problem like Covid19
-Taliban is a legitimate stakeholder in Afghanistan so India must talk with them. By initiating negotiation with them it doesn't mean we support their ideology but for our interest is served
- We must carefully watching Iran Russia etc stand on Afghanistan.
- In last 7-8 years taliban nothing to do or harm Indian building, school and other development work made in Afghanistan so unofficially they also wanted to involve India in the process
- India have great respect in the heart of Afghans. They like Indian Movies, Culture etc apart from that India have almost $10billion investment in Afghanistan which is a huge amount for India, that's why India need to be convey with all stakeholders not to put all balls in Ghani pocket.
- Power sharing deal is a very welcome step which is endorsed by India but it's important to have a common perception for both candidates on afghanistan peace issue.
- India needs to play it cards very wisely and evolve itself as a global leader.

[arnabbhakat]

Very Very Healthy and Informative discussion.... Thank you very much to RSTV...

[gautamgunjan]

What a phenomenal panel. . Strategic expert seems very nice.

[shreymishra]

The amount of context needed to understand this discussion is immense. Although alot of googling has already been done.

[dibyaranjan]

First time the audio is clear....please make it into consideration in next coming vedios

[sunnymak]

The debate is quite fruitful as it somehow clears the dilemma of whether india should interacte with taliban or not.

[saviorenault]

India has to decide carefully on coming to the terms with yet to become political entity, Taliban. India will certainly be observing the 6+2+1 talks (remember US envoy has clearly said that India has to talk directly to them for any issues includes security/terrorism etc which also means US will be least interested to involve in this endless problems anymore). India might be quite hesitant because of the destructive nature of taliban who did not bother to go on a ceasefire mode even in pandemics and likely impression of India, who is vocal about countering terrorism in every international fora, working together with Taliban before they become a mainstream political entity. Quite frankly bringing India to the peace talks for Taliban will be as good as for India representing directly in peace talks. Howsoever, we have, clearly, come to a point where there is no alternative to the afghan talks without taliban and India is too big a power to be ignored for future progress. Yet, India said that they may not join hands with others to participate in peace talks!

[AbhinavKumar-klbw]

India must make up its mind to forgo its conservative approach. Time has ripened to set the ball rolling, so far as dialogue with Taliban is concerned. As katju sir rightly said that initiating talks with Taliban would not project India as endorsing the terror group. What i have to say is that Taliban is coming to present itself on the ground of Afghanistani politics or it may be that it will form government, and if India does nothing now, it will be very late, and the fear that Taliban will do at behest of pakistan shall come true. Moreover, India must look forward to taking Taliban into confidence that for the betterment of Afghanistan India is always with them. Though i reckon that what Taliban says can not be relied on, the statement made the spokesperson of the Taliban that Kashmir is an internal matter of India is enormous one. This is perfect time for India to hit the iron rod, which is hot, in order to attain the shape that it requires.

[narendrathebishtdude]

Asthana sir abhi bhi cap lagaye hai retirement k baad bhi, . Once a soldier always a soldier

[Rahulpriye]

The self life of the goodwill is very short so I think backchannel diplomacy with the Taliban needs to be initiated..

[YashwantSingh]

India will lose more by being not on the table so India needs to and India can take a important position by being one of the important investors in the Afghanistan's social development. India will lose all the goodwill it has earned in the last 20 years if India stays outside the game any longer. My only question is..If India gets into the deal, what about India's Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) where India said that it does not differentiate between good terrorist and bad terrorist.

[fabuvn]

Maj Gen Asthana (Retd) brings more points to the table than Maj Gen Ashwani (Retd)

[nipuntyagi]

Believing in peace talk with Taliban would reduce the importance of India in Geo politics. Taliban is also not trustworthy as it seems to be. It will not give a good message to international community to include taliban in dialogue whereas taliban pretended to be more powerful after the withdrawal of US forces.

[jyotishnaseema]

India is talk to both government and taliban because Kashmir issue is very vulnerable so than India is a negotiation of this government.