How the Russia-Ukraine War Could Turn into a Nuclear Nightmare

Since the beginning of Russia's invasion Ukraine, nuclear weapons have loomed in the background. The rhetoric sharply increased after Ukraine's successful counterattacks. Although we are still many steps away from serious nuclear problems, the groundwork for concerns has been laid. This video explains what tactical nuclear weapons do, how Russia might try to deploy them, and what might deter Putin from taking such steps.

0:00 Nuclear Threats in the Russia-Ukraine War
0:49 Strategic versus Tactical Nuclear Weapons
5:01 Tactical Benefits of Nuclear Weapons
6:35 Basic Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons
8:51 Forward Deployment of Tactical Nuclear Weapons
12:18 Downsides to Forward Deployments
15:25 What's the Risk of a Nuclear Detonation?

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

By OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine:

By US Army:

By US Secretary of Defense:

By IAEA:

By Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:

By Ukrinform:

[Gametheory]

17:02 Over-analysis of politicians on chairs

[MatthewLuigamma]

That paper tear at 7:39 scared the shit out of me

[DJtheLoungeLizard]

I think the risk of nuclear war will exponentially increase after this war is over and when the Russian Federation begins to fracture. Every small region will try to hold onto those weapons on their land because they have seen the dangers down the road. That is, twenty years later Russia will treat them the same as they are treating Ukraine now.

[warmongeir]

I am U.S. 20 years retired military person and have been a member of SAC most of my career, including SAC Hq. in Nebraska. I have lived through the "Missiles of October" and I see no comparison here. This has turned into something much more serious, and I have been following "LIVE" most of the problems in Russia including the mobilization conflict from individuals living in Russia who have departed their country. There are a lot of things going on here that are quite unique to the situation that leave the feeling of grave unrest.

[prim]

Never thought in 2022 I'd be waking up daily to news about potential nuclear war. This is doing wonders for my mental health

[IbisGuy]

What really concerns me about the use of 'tactical' nuclear weapons is that they appear deceptively low impact but are a convenient way to gently ease the world into total nuclear armageddon. Once the nuclear threshold is crossed for the first time (since WWII), I worry about how small a jump it would be to progress from 'tactical' nukes to bombing entire cities. I truly hope we never cross this threshold.

[Ifraneljadida]

Man, the past 5 years or so I'd really gotten into learning about war and geopolitics. Stalingrad was my favorite battle to read. Wars from Alexander the Great, to the Great Northern War to the US Civil War

It's still somewhat surreal that a European land war, for territorial conquest, has broken out

[Nick-mcet]

I think you also have to consider the possibility that if the weapons are handed out to commanders on the front lines, the risk of them just selling them to a buyer for a massive sum. We've seen how corruption has been rampant in the military, I would not write off something like that happening.

[brihath]

Of the risks you described in your video, the use of tactical nuclear weapons scares me the most. There is a precedent for this. In October 1962, General Issa Pliyev, the Soviet Commander in Cuba had full release authority for the 98 tactical nuclear warheads under his command. Dr. Thomas Reed in his book "At the Abyss" describes the situation where Pliyev had full release authority in the event he could not communicate with Moscow. Following the Cuban Missile Crisis, the USSR developed a very robust, hard-wired command and control system for the Strategic Rocket Forces known as "Signal". I am not sure such a level of command and control over tactical nukes exists. It is my hope that Putin and the military command authority will do everything in their power to avoid releasing tactical nuclear weapons to subordinate commanders.

[cav]

While any of these scenarios are discomforting, the question that needs to be asked if we want to live in a world where a single person has the power to make these kinds of threats. I believe that now that the nuclear "Pandora's box" has been opened, it will only be solved once it has been closed. Russia merely opting to not use it (now) may prove to be insufficient.

[TheGravityShifter]

I remember learning about the Mini Nuke (Davy Crockett) from Because Science. Even though that bomb is super tiny compared to City Busters and even Little Boy back in '45, the distance you have to be from Ground Zero to be considered safe from the blast is still super dang far. Mainly to avoid radiation poisoning. You'd have to be at least half a mile away to be relatively safe from it and even then it's not guaranteed.

[evilpoon]

I don't Know if anyone else has mentioned this but once the nukes go out to the local commanders; I wonder how long it would be until someone tries to sell one. You could say that this is sort of a joke but it sort of isn't, as well.

[theterminaldave]

Many analyses of the Russian annexation fail to mention that by doing that, allowed Putin to send a segment of conscripts to fight in those areas, as their doctrine states that certain conscripts aren't allowed to fight outside of Russian soil.

[rickoshay]

"Given so much time, the impossible becomes possible, the possible becomes probable, the probable becomes virtually certain." - 1954, George Wald, Scientific American.

As much as this quote had to do about the very spark that created life on this planet, the quote also applies to our ability to end life on the planet as well.

[berkovichify]

One of the best channels out there. Thanks for keeping us updated as the situation evolves.

[cardwitch]

The idea of Putin “relinquishing control” over the weapons is pretty unthinkable. It’s the guy who follows him I’m worried about…

[khaledadams]

I think you're absolutely right. The risks, although potentially higher than ever, are still not incredibly high. However, the downside is so extreme, it raises the importance of the current situation and should place it on, or near the top of our immediate concerns.

[heatherligiffen]

Bought your book (paperback). You really are proficient and excellent in explaining in terms everyone can understand. Keep the videos coming . They are needed. 👏👍🏼😊

[CrazyGaming-igqq]

You dont make a lot of videos, but when you do I thoroughly enjoy the analysis.

[Canoby]

William "William Spaniel" Spaniel: respected academic and educational youtuber by day, hard hitting Crimean bridge bombing chad by night