2020 Presidential Election FINAL Predictions

Election day in the 2020 US Presidential election is fast approaching. Joe Biden has a steady lead of about 7-8 points in the national polls over Donald Trump which would put him on a par with Barack Obama’s 2008 victory. But, as you may or may not already know, in US presidential elections, the popular vote doesn’t matter as much as how much the vote holds up in the swing states, like Florida and Pennsylvania.


Where you can find me!

To win the US Presidential election, candidates have to win 270 electoral votes,
which are divided out by population across the states. The majority of states are either safe Republican or Safe democrat, so they are not likely to change at this election, instead candidates have to try to win the states that change often, called swing states. I’ve got a video explaining the electoral college more in depth.

In the swing states that Joe Biden really needs to win in this election, his lead is a lot smaller, maybe half, compared to his lead in the national polls. Trump won in 2016 because of this advantage he had in the swing states. He won votes where it counted, which meant he bagged tiny wins in states like Florida and Pennsylvania, as well as in traditionally democratic areas like Michigan and Wisconsin. On the other hand Hillary Clinton ran the vote up and won almost unseen before majorities in heavily Democratic areas, like California. As a result she won the popular vote across the country by 2 points. But in the Electoral college, these extra votes she got in places like California were basically wasted votes.

Trump has a similar advantage in swing states in the 2020 election, but it’s nowhere near as big an advantage as it was in 2016, partly because Trump was only trailing in the popular vote by a few points back then, now its closer to 10. Because of this large national lead, I think Biden will probably win, but those swing states are so important, and he needs to bag as many as he can. Who do you think will win?