Why Everybody is WRONG about the Markets and the Fed Pivot (danger for 2023)

Why everybody is wrong about the markets and the Fed pivot (danger for 2023). Most analysts and economists are expecting a "fed pivot" either in December or next year in 2023. The "Fed pivot" is when the Federal Reserve decides to reverse its strategy of raising rates to bring inflation under control and instead to cut rates (hence the "pivot"). This event is expected to happen some time in 2023. The majority of analysts and economists are of the view that this pivot by the Fed will be a positive for the stock market - i.e. that it will make stock markets rally much higher. However, does history agree with this view? In this video I am going to show you why the majority opinion on the "Fed pivot" is mistaken. History shows something completely different to what the majority of analysts expect. In fact, it seems that the stock market usually rallies in expectation of a pivot by the Fed (when the Fed decides to cut rates) and after the pivot occurs, the market is ready to make a top and drop much further lower. We look at examples from previous major pivots in the years 2007, 2000 and 1973. #stockmarket #sp500 #alessiorastani

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[henk]

That is why I am following your channel for years now. ( although years ago I wrote that TA is BS :) = beginners arrogance) Appreciate your passion for teaching.

[charlesfrancois]

To whoever reading this, never stop chasing your dreams you can do it. Keep pressing and thriving you will make it! Consistency is the key to achieve your goals.

[kolesamet]

Excellent content. I used the last dip to stock up, buying AM200X now its cheap, can't miss the presale.

[alphayvshimoto]

Myself during this Bear Market only trying to focus on BTC, BLR27T, ETH, SOL, MATIC. not losing sight of BNB and GALA.

[bettyshee]

During the previous few Fed Pivots, the market was going up during the rate hiking cycle, but this time is the opposite, the markets dropped significantly during the rate hiking process.

[angobango]

If this plays out like you mentioned then you saved a whole lot of folks. Especially the gen z traders.
Thanks Alessio 🙏🏻

[afrazaryan]

Hell yes $ BLR27T. Going to have a huge Q4

[SipTimes]

Only source i trust.Following you many years and your explanations are amazing.Easy to understand.Most importantly you show both sides of possibilities and practicality.

[andyr]

Thanks. Now that the FED Pivot happened, what are your thoughts? More upside before turning down? or should we expect a crash anytime soon?

[tosgem]

One difference i see in the charts today, though, is that we've already dropped a lot and the pivot hasn't happened yet. In all the other cases a pivot happened at a top, or almost a top, in the charts

[rbf]

Interesting point. However, as you will notice although the stock market drops during the pivot approximately 14 months after the pivot the stock market starts to rally again. But that pattern may not repeat.

[josemelo_]

Once again, proving yourself as one of the best analysts out there. 👏👏👏

Thanks for so much value 🙌

[JoaoFerreira-bocq]

Great video Alessio! I think it actually makes sense the market drops after the pivot, because cutting rates is the FED acknowledging that the economy is in trouble for some period and it needs help, so investors get pessimistic and start selling.

[gipadang]

I learn something new every time saw your vid. First time i know you about black swan. Hope you post possibilty next black swan.

[InvestorGurus]

The reason why stock market fall after fed pivot and rate cut is because Fed usually cut when the economy goes into recession that's why market take Fed pivot negativ as a sign for recession.

[EverymanJWL]

Great video here. This is where I found your channel. Look forward to more videos.

[theinvestmentabc]

You are totally right, beware of the FED pivot. The FED only pivots when something broke. The effect of the pivot lags and needs time to push markets higher

[CryptoHampshire]

Im in southampton 20 mins down the road, welcome my good man 🇬🇧👍

[Cachoeira]

Thanks for this valuable update. I think too, that the FED does want to bring the stockmarket down even more, even after Inflations is reducing.

[codesml]

I haven’t forgotten about this video. We’re getting close to a possible Fed Pivot in the next 3 - 6 months I think.
I’d bet the market drop and pivot is a correlation not causation event. Meaning, the Fed pivot occurs when they’ve broke the back of the market, thus causing the drop.
I’d love to hear an update from you on this soon.