2024 US Senate Map Based on the Latest Polls in Every Race

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Let's review the 2024 US Senate map based on the latest polls for the 34 contested races. Democrats need to defend 23 of these seats, including 8 of the 10 most competitive races and three seats in states Trump won in both 2016 and 2020: Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. The 2024 Senate map heavily favors Republicans, who have an 82% chance of securing a majority according to Decision Desk HQ's forecast. We'll now examine the states where neither party has better than a 95% chance of winning.

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Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing non-partisan political channel on YouTube, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. My official 2020 Presidential Election Forecast correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states. My 2022 Senate Forecast accurately projected the winners in 33 of 34 races.

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[johnpayne]

While watching this video, Bob Melendez was found guilty on all 16 bribery charges. Lol

[gordonsavage]

I don’t understand this split voting, the state favors Trump but will then vote for a Democrat that voted with Biden; doesn’t make sense to me.

[miketerry]

California let's help Steve Garvey become our rep.

[DanHutchings-xxug]

Need to vote straight red if Trump is going to get anything done. He needs to flip the Senate and keep the House.

[toolegittoquit_]

Menendez was found guilty of all charges

[greenapple]

With JD as VP Ohio is going to be deep red, probably 15 points, and will likely carry Moreno over the finish line.

[williampaul]

Explain the Democrat Vision for America? Explain their achievements? Explain their border policy? What do they stand for? Lifting people up? Or making them dependent?

[godfrey-kfzq]

Did you factor in the cemetery voters.

[geraldmantanona]

In Nevada, West Pointer & US Army Combat Veteran, Sam Brown will defeat “Tacky” Jacky Rosen. She has voted for Joe Biden’s policies 97% of the time. Nevadans are fed up with her Draconian policies. We’re for Donald Trump & Sam Brown here! 😃🇺🇸👍🏾🫡

[timreed]

Menendez has been found guilty in all counts.

[gregorylomax]

How the heck is Sherrod brown leading? He has let the state of Ohio and the United States down, down, down for years.

[DannyDoesPolitics]

Who else remembers when everyone was talking about JD Vance losing Ohio and now he’s the VP nominee…

[Originalyoutubename.]

Yeah Bernie Moreno is winning Ohio despite the polls, like JD

[Zombierippa]

We in Arizona have not had our primary yet, Kari Lake has not secured the election. After she beats Sheriff Lamb, the voters will come home to Kari and she will lead Gellego by many thousands.

[jfragz]

GOP will have more than 51 probably 52-52

[cnugftm]

I quit doing any business with blue states and blue cities in my state, will never again do biz with any blue org.

[Abeisgreat]

No way ohio voting blue on the Senate.

[jamescorsello]

With the Assination attempt in Pennsylvania and the VP coming from Ohio, I think that throws most of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania up for grabs?

[castandblast]

I disagree. Most people will vote straight ticket based from the top down.

[loganpalmer]

Really think NJ is gonna be competitive with Menendez. Even if he takes 10%