'The Right Way For Trump To Ditch The Paris Agreement' With Dr. Steven Koonin, Stanford University’s

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In our conversation, we explore the need for a global course correction in energy and climate policy, the opportunities and challenges of having more business-minded individuals in government, the disconnect between the scientific community and public policy, and the importance of transparency and effective communication by government leaders to explain energy and climate policy issues more clearly to the public. We discuss key points from Dr. Koonin’s Op-Ed, including his proposed actions for the Trump Administration if they were to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, the implications of Europe’s energy strategies and their lasting consequences, and Dr. Koonin’s suggestions to restructure the Loan Programs Office to prioritize research and development of scalable, economically viable technologies. Dr. Koonin shares his observations on fusion energy as a potentially transformative energy source and the opportunities and challenges involved, talks about intriguing advances in energy storage, and touches on other technological innovations including underground coal gasification with carbon sequestration. We also cover the US’s role in setting an example for energy policy and improving global energy access, Dr. Koonin’s outlook for 2025, and more. It was a wide-ranging and insightful discussion. Thank you Dr. Koonin for joining!

Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting the performance of a handful of commodity and equity prices since Dr. Koonin last appeared on COBT (4/19/22). The 10-year bond yield (~4.4%) surged last week, sending it back to previous Trump post-election highs. It’s consensus that the FED will cut interest rates by a quarter point at Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision meeting, but what’s not consensus and what bonds are trying to handicap, is the path forward for interest rates in 2025. On the broader equity market front, markets took a bit of a breather last week and are mixed/modestly lower this week given that investors are laser-focused on the FOMC Meeting, especially Chairman Powell’s Post Conference dialogue on future interest rate policy. On the crude oil market front, WTI rallied ~$4/bbl (to ~$71/bbl) last week but continues to trade in a very tight trading band (~$68-$71/bbl) given that fundamentals still seem to point to a 2025 global supply surplus. On the gas market front, although the news came out after our COBT recording, the DOE’s long-waited “Updated Final Analyses on LNG Exports” was released. The analysis stopped short of banning new LNG exports. He also noted that given the 60-day comment period, it all but makes this DOE Analysis DOA under the Trump Administration. He wrapped by noting that the number of natural gas and electricity/power announcements over the last weeks/months really exemplify what we see as a major Energy Convergence theme unfolding, that theme being a growing and accelerating intertwinement between electron and molecule businesses. Arjun Murti emphasized that Germany’s current struggles with deindustrialization, driven by high energy costs and energy policies such as retiring nuclear power, over-reliance on Russian gas and renewables, highlight the need for balanced, reliable energy strategy and broader accountability and awareness from policymakers and institutions pushing net-zero goals without fully addressing energy reliability and abundance.

Today’s COBT is our last for the year and marks the 57th episode for 2024. We’re thankful to each of you for your support along the way!

Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year! O