Is A Housing Market Crash On The Horizon For 2025?

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[Rickhelps]

Thanks for the update and sharing the video explaining how sales seem to be stuck or growing despite the rates. I agree that rates will be stuck going into Q1. What I am seeing in Arizona is not a drop in closed sales prices but a drop in "asking prices". Huge disconnect.

[marzv]

Wow first time I heard someone talk about this! I took the lower price and 6% rate vs promo rate and 20k higher price! Promo rate is a scam!!!

[scottsnyder]

NAR just reported existing home sales of 3.96 (seasonally-adjusted annualized) in Oct-2024. In Jul-1995 there were also 3.96 million existing homes sold. There were about 64 million owner-occupied homes then compared to about 87 million now, a 36% increase.
During the interim over 29 years, there were only 17 out of 350 months in which existing home sales were lower. We are in a “housing market stagflation”, with high home prices, low inventory and low affordability. That is not going to change anytime soon. Even with existing home inventory up 29% YOY.
As the speaker noted federal lands do not border population centers, so opening up will have marginal effect. Tariffs and mass deportation is highly likely to be inflationary, so mortgage rates will be unlikely to fall. And zoning laws and housing regulations are virtually all controlled at the local level.
NIMBYism is alive and strong in most municipalities.
60% of all Americans live in metros of 2 million or more, 70% live in metros of 1 million or more, and 80% live in metros of half million or more. The price of land is high in more populated areas, and homeowners are generally opposed to higher density construction.
Despite some unintended consequences to historically low interest rates for nearly a decade, one of the benefits was a lot of capital became available for home construction. That did mitigate in places somewhat the housing shortage.
But I don’t see how this housing market stagflation materially changes much over this decade.

[barbararamphal]

Where is this strong economy? Am I living on another planet? Dollar stores are closing, multiple restaurants and retail stores are claiming bankruptcy

[Ea-nx]

What did she mean, entry level? Entry level homes?

[saikrupa]

It should crash worstly no one can buy house with while. Software engineer runs family for 20 years with tht cost how can we afford houses which are so worst priced

[Dee-wy]

Home values are declining rapidly. These declines will continue for years to come.