Webinar: More Accurate Solar and Wind Guidance from the NOAA HRRR Model in 2019-2020

Featured Speaker: Stan Benjamin, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Dr. Stan Benjamin is a research meteorologist and weather model developer at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) in Boulder, CO. Stan received a Ph.D. in meteorology from Penn State and a B.A. in mathematics from Albion College in Michigan. He and his group at NOAA/ESRL like being useful by improving NOAA forecasts for applications including energy, aviation, and severe weather.

Moderator: Charlie Smith, ESIG

Webinar Abstract: Improvements in weather models are increasingly designed specifically for renewable energy application and decision making. NOAA and the National Weather Service are refining their its hourly updated HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) 3km weather model to better serve the energy industry by better using observations such as radar, lightning, satellite, and aircraft to initialize the HRRR model. NOAA has also been improving how it models winds and clouds in various conditions, in part through a special observation study in the Pacific Northwest (WFIP2). The HRRR model was improved in July 2018, resulting in more widespread use by the energy industry for Day 1 and out to 36h. A next upgrade in 2020 will further improve HRRR forecasts for clouds and storms of all seasons and a likely extension out to 48h allowing full coverage for Day 2 guidance.

This webinar will briefly cover how weather models work, how they are initialized with various observations, and how the HRRR model will be improved next year. Biggest upcoming changes: better forecasts overall of clouds, icing, smoke, thunderstorms, and improved probabilistic forecasts.