Everything That Happened Today in the Fight Against the Coronavirus | NBC New York

COVID-19 numbers in New Jersey have been at their steepest levels -- and higher, at times -- than they were in the spring, a trend reflective both of enhanced testing and a U.S. crisis that shows no signs of abating. How much worse could they get?

Hospitalization numbers could turn direr than they were in April and daily cases could double in the next month with no change in public behavior, under the Garden State's worst-case scenario.

If public compliance improves -- and people heed holiday warnings -- it doesn't have to get to that point, according to the moderate projection outcome model Gov. Phil Murphy outlined Wednesday.

Two New Jersey agencies -- the Department of Health and the Office of Innovation -- devised independent analyses for both worst-case and moderate scenarios as far as the state's next six weeks battling the coronavirus. Both are based on real-time data, trends and a series of assumptions on human behavior.

Under the worst-case scenario, which assumes no change in compliance with masks, social distancing and avoidance of mass gatherings, New Jersey would see weeks of increasing cases, peaking between 12,595 and 9,932 in mid-January to early February, based on the two agencies' models. The state would see more hospitalizations than its 8,300 April peak under either analysis -- and that metric would be most magnified between mid-January and early February.