Is the US planning for War by... playing games?

Why Real Militaries Play Fake War

Militaries have a long tradition of using wargames to strategize. I went to a military think tank and played a wargame against Sam Ellis, guided by a panel of experts, about the conflict around Taiwan.

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-- VIDEO CHAPTERS --
0:00 What is a Wargame?
1:56 South China Sea, Wargamed
5:12 Turn 1
8:54 History of Wargames
10:40 Turns 2 & 3
16:41 Why Wargame?
17:34 Modern History of Wargames
20:09 Conclusion

CORRECTION:
9:45 image of The Kaiser, Hindenburg, and Ludendorff planning "The Final Drive" is from WWI not WWII

About:
Johnny Harris is an Emmy-winning independent journalist and contributor to the New York Times. Based in Washington, DC, Harris reports on interesting trends and stories domestically and around the globe, publishing to his audience of over 5 million on Youtube. Harris produced and hosted the twice Emmy-nominated series Borders for Vox Media. His visual style blends motion graphics with cinematic videography to create content that explains complex issues in relatable ways.

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[markzhao]

Johnny Harris 2022: Look at this map
Johnny Harris 2025: I'm standing on a map

[Malsgebakkengroenteburger]

You just know the referee also runs his own Dungeons and dragons campaign as a DM

[werwaaardas]

"I think oil is probably our move" is the most American thing Sam could have said

[isuk]

This is why I stopped playing Risk. Too many sweats

[owino_emmanuel]

Johnny's obsession for large maps has led us to this point

[vrushankarur]

It is quite poetic that the one controlling the USA is Sam.

[TravelWithGus]

Missed opportunity to be sponsored by WarThunder

[sundhaug]

The concept of wargaming is where a lot of games came from

[mtwata]

I can't help but imagine an average American playing this game:

"Ok, I'll attack China with full power and with my allies, and regain Taiwan"
*Places all cubes on an island and near the coast*

"James, you just attacked Mozambique and conquered Madagascar"

[Dis_is_fine]

The fact Johnny never closes the comment section not matter how controversial the video is already makes this better than most news channels out there.

[LogicalNiko]

Interesting fact, in WW2 the Japanese navy had actually gamed so many scenarios that they had actually played out the having some ships not being docked in Perl Harbor. And in Midway the only scenarios where they consistently lost were ones where the US had compromised Japanese codes. They had ruled this extremely unlikely, but that was exactly what had unfolded. In every case reality was among the set of games they had simulated in advance showing quite heavily that gaming is a very effective preparation tool.

[Harveyinchina]

Lost me at 'sail a carrier group through the Taiwan strait'. Because after 90 days of no fly zone and a complete blockade by China in the SCS, there is literally zero chance that could happen. Ridiculous

[almightysosa]

“A strange game,
The only winning move is not to play.

How about a game of chess”

[BorealBlizzard]

We are one step closer to johnny harris warhammer content

[zoltanjenkins]

The fact you didn't show the full play out of the game between you and Sam totally crushed me. It could have been more multi-faceted if you did; an insight on the nature/history of wargames, a full-play walkthrough of casual wargames, a game between friends, a war between nations, a glimpse into a possible future. I feel like Vice would have played the full game back when they were cool and Andrew Callaghan would have ran it now. Still a good watch but I feel like you missed out on showing something spooky (based on how things were escalating) in a fun way that still would have left people feeling a bit beleaguered by the prospects. That's just me.

[Moonshot-jx]

Sorry to say this, if the war game's initial state is that Taiwan has been occupied for 90 days, then it is game over already. The best the US can do is to set up a peripheral defense line to protect the assets in Japan and the Philippines.
The US would never send a carrier fleet into the Taiwan Straight in the name of humanitarian assistance. It would seem noncredible and suicidal. By this time, China would have established no-flight over the island, Taiwan Straight, as well as most part of South China Sea. Any hostile war machines in the zone would be considered treats. China would give ample stern warnings before proceed to annihilate the fleet indiscriminately (not to pick weak ones only).
A carrier in a narrow passage is a sitting duck. Land-based missiles from both sides of the channel will take down all the aircraft in the air and all the ships on the sea, while the fleet doesn't even know what targets to aim for.
The difference between Jonny and Xi is that Jonny is deciding in the game if he should avoid a direct massive attack on the US threats, while Xi has already made a decision on the rules of engagement long before the war begins. If the rules of the engagement are met, actions will be taken quickly and without hesitation.

[Rangergeo]

If you are starting at 90 days occupation, your 89 days to late.

[josefrey]

Can we see the how the whole game played out?

[MeRavenAir]

I worked as a wargaming facility in the late 80s. I think you did a great job of capturing the feel of war games and the effect it can have on the participants.

[octaviamacisaac]

Watching as a Canadian thinking "I wonder if anyone is doing this with the plans on Canada and Greenland." That was my first thought, and that feels like a sad statement of today's reality.