Why the Stock Market is SO Confusing Right Now

Julius de Kempenaer, creator of #rrg , assesses current rotations in asset classes and US sectors using Relative Rotation Graphs and finds a lot of contradicting behavior. Taking a step back he focuses on the weekly time frame to find some more meaningful trends and shy away from day-to-day noise.
He then compares the current rotations and setups in price charts with those that occurred at the end of 2021 and moving into 2022 and finds some strong analogies that warrant a continued cautious approach to the markets.

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00:00 - Welcome!
00:57 - Asset Class RRG (Bonds, Commodities, Stocks, Currencies)
04:31 - S&P 500 (SPY), US Treasury ETF (GOVT)
07:15 - Sector RRG: XLB, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI
12:28 - XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY
16:40 - A Sector Rotation Dilemma ...
22:19 - SharpChart: Consumer Staples (XLP), S&P 500 (SPY)
26:09 - Final Thoughts

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[TheSpringbok]

Julius, thanks again for this outstanding analysis.
My experience is that when there is confusion, typically a big move is coming.
I noticed for last 2 weeks that markets moved up with a lot of trickery; big opening gaps, moving up with low/declining volume, divergences in both directs (i.e. increased volatility), invalidated patterns, etc. at least more BS than usual.
My take is that your weekly RRG shows the real picture. While big money gets out of tech, funds move into fixed income (i.e. on the sideline) and defensive stock (to keep the S&P 'up' while portfolio allocations are changed) - that money will not flow back into tech within a few days. When 'defense' capitulates, stock will tip its hand. I guess we'll find out within a few weeks - I agree, best to be on the sideline for now.

[ramones]

Watching that comparison between 2021/2022 and today, it brings me to that quote “History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes”
For the time being, I don't mind staying on the sidelines drinking a beer watching the market find its path haha
Glad to see you recovered Julius
Stay safe and have a nice week

[TerryPitman]

So glad to see you again Julius and glad you are feeling well again!

[shar]

I agree completely, thank you for being so objective and honest

[nannekingma]

Ten eerste echt beterschap, iedere video van jou doet mij dingen overpeinzen. Ten tweede weet jij s&p sector etf's waar ik als Nederlander in kan handelen. Aan de londonse beurs zijn ze genoteerd. De liquiditeit van deze etf's is echter laag, heel laag.

[pouyajasmi]

Hallo Julius, bedankt voor het update.. we missed you..

And i remember you mentioned in couple of last episodes.. you mentioned the best scenario is for the spx to range.. i guess is doing just that..

[draranda]

The market is holding up well for September which is the worst month of the year, seasonally. It could have been worse. Thx Julius.

[pouyajasmi]

Julius, what do you think could be consider an early possibility confirmation or a downtrend?

[johnholmes]

I’m same page. Economy looks bleak, job issues. It’s possible the lower rates spur temporary growth and inflation raises its ugly head again than what the market going to do! Serious sell off..😮