Win some, lose some for NDA as AIADMK quits NDA & JD-S returns: BJP’s 72-hr ally drama & 2024 impact

The BJP has lost its Tamil Nadu ally AIADMK just two days after an old partner, the JD(S), returned to the NDA in Karnataka. In episode 1315 of #CutTheClutter, Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta delves into data from 2014 and 2019 to explain what these developments mean for the BJP in 2024, and how they affect the party’s poll calculations and its plans to score a hat-trick in landslide Lok Sabha election wins.
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[avinashtadi]

Small correction: even though BJP don’t have direct ally in Andhra Pradesh, all 3 parties support BJP. Whoever wins the election in Andhra, the original winner in BJP. So BJP counts all 25 as their seats

[amanmadheshiya]

I think this is strategic electoral management of BJP to deal with dravidian politics against DMK. After LS 2024 both will choose their own side.

[Kannadiga-rn]

It is good for BJP, they have nothing to loose, they must prepare for 2026 elections along with 2024

[preshant]

Muthuramalinga Devar was a staunch Saivite. His picture even on the Print Video literally has him with a full Vibhuti.

His motto literally was "Nationalism and Devotion are my two eyes". Where does Shekhar Gupta get that he was a Dravidian leader ?

He was everything but a Dravidian leader - honest, spiritual & donated all his wealth to the poor.

[saurabhpahade]

I don't think AIADMK has really left NDA. Maybe AIADMK can eat more DMK votes without BJP at their back and BJP can be a third front where people who are pissed with both vote...

[onlytruthissupreme]

Exit of AIADMK is not a set back rather it opened the gateway of opportunities for BJP. BJP takes time to get foot holds in areas where they are weak but once entrenched it becomes permanent.

[Nashaking]

The major issue in tn bjp is that Annamalai doesn’t want an alliance. Why? Because he genuinely believes that he can bring the bjp to power.

[akeshravi]

Even if BJP goes with ADMK, they won't win any seat because a part of ADMK cadres are Anti BJP... So like 2014 if Anti Modi votes split into 3 then BJP can possibly win few seats in TN.... And it will lay the foundation for the party to grow in the future

[kumarm]

Even bjp don't care about this but sekhar sir will plant stories

[rajivgandhithandavarayan]

In Tamilnadu, AIADMK is waste luggage for BJP .. BJP is to contest alone with his own Alliance under Annamalai Anna will have good results for sure in upcoming elections....

[VK-vbwv]

Bjp is at distant 3rd position in TN, Kl, Ap, TG, and Punjab. Bright chances in TG and TN to come to 2nd position very soon. Annamalai -TN, Eetala and Sanjay -TG.

[libshastra]

Sometimes a divorce is better than a forced marriage. ADMK and BJP alliance at this juncture proves that notion. Let's see how much vote share the BJP is able to capture on its own. It would be important to see which seats it wins. If BJP wins Madurai (where they seem to have a strong presence outside Kovai) then it means BJP has a solid footing in TN.

I do look forward to BJP coming to power in TN. Down with Dengue Malaria Kosu party.

[jk]

AIADMK has only 1 MP seat, which makes no difference for BJP whether it was with AIADMK or not. The current situation is better because BJP can prove its strength by winning anything more than 1 MP seat. And it looks like BJP will come out with at least 5 MP seats in Tamil Nadu, which would be a great start.

[Shivakumar-tdcz]

Karnataka BJP cannot win more than 15 seats. More than 10 MPs of BJP in karnataka have already given up hope or given statements that they will not contest this time. Even JDS cannot save them. Belgaum, Chamarajnagar, Bangalore North, Bagalkote, Bijapur, North Kannada, Haveri. These MPs are restricting themselves in public life.

[maniaphobia]

BJP has nothing to loose in Tamil Nadu ; Even it gets one seat it is a plus ; At the same time, BJP today in TN is different ; Visible, Vibrant, Vigorous thanks to its new leader Annamalai providing the much awaited, long overdue alternative to Dravidian Parties ; For BJP, it can afford to part with its partner who is a looser and not won any election after 2016 ; Shameless congress still holding on to the tail of Dravidian parties, not trying on their own ;

[rohitrai]

Thevar was not a Dravidian. He said Nationalism and Spirituality (Desiyam and Deiveegam) are the two eyes of the nation

[AbhishekSingh-pusx]

Look out for ANNA in 2026 vidhan sabha polls, it would be

( AIADMK + DMK ) vs BJP

[edward]

Downfall of BJP is eminent now. Use and throw policy won't work anymore.

[FL-GOP]

The ~2.5% vote bank support that BJP has in TN is 'mostly' from one community, people in TN know who that is. AIADMK's move now opens up the collation with minority parties. DMK would be watching closely now and campaigning this as temporary arrangement between ADMK and BJP, post election they might join again.

[baskarsk]

ADMK mass❤❤
Late.. But good decision for tamil nadu / Admk ❤❤