New Countries That Might Exist By 2030

▶ In this video, I talk about The New York Times' List Of Potential New Countries, as written by two opinion authors in 2012. It's important to note this wasn't an official New York Times position or prediction, but rather that of those two authors - Frank Jacobs and Parag Khana. Throughout the video, I go through a few of their predicted countries, such as Azawad - a breakaway state in Mali caused by Tuareg rebellion and focusing on the topic of Berber Nationalism in North and West Africa. The hypothetical of Afghanistan and Pakistan into Balochistan and Pashtunistan, uniting the ethnic groups that are today separated by the countries' border. The Arab Gulf Union, which the authors predicts would mean a Saudi Arabia take-over of the Peninsula, bringing Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Yemen and Oman under their control via a de facto political and economical union. The potential breakup of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, namely the Eastern provinces of Kivu - which could join Rwanda too - and the Southern province of Katanga - which could join Zambia. Moving on to Somaliland, Somalia's breakaway state and the most likely prediction they made. Presenting a hypothetical scenario for post-internal conflict Syria, where the old regime would be reduced to the coast, creating an Alawite State and mimicking the division of Syria at the time of French Colonial Rule. As well as an independent Kurdistan based on Syria's internal troubles and Iraq's constant instability. Finally looking at the potential of an expansion for Azerbaijan, into the Azeri populated region of Northern Iran, should the latter break up due to a regime collapse.

TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
00:37 Azawad
02:03 Balochistan & Pashtunistan
03:26 Arabian Gulf Union
05:48 More Congos
07:09 Somaliland
07:59 Alawite
08:45 Kurdistan
09:34 Greater Azerbaijan
10:16 Summary

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[General.Knowledge]

*Do you think any of these potential countries still has a chance of becoming independent? And which others do you think could become their own nation in the future?*

[bababababababa]

Bougainville is the only one that’s set in stone

[fishbloke]

Considering a lot of those predictions were about the Middle East/other Muslim states, I think it’s important to remember that these predictions were made in 2012; i.e. right off the back of the Arab Spring. Everyone was optimistic that the Middle East would overthrow their dictators and give freedom to their people… yeah, we saw how that went. With that context, it’s easier to see why they thought all those Islamic countries would collapse, which seems unthinkable now.

[SurgicalStrike]

Creating a new state is hard, if not borderline impossible in the modern world. You need significant enough support (because minority uprisings usually fail eventually due to weight of numbers) and for the Great Powers to either back you or not intervene.

[tobiaswiesendanger]

About a month ago a constitutional referendum passed in Mali, creating two new regions in the north, wich was part of a peace deal with seperatists

[bustavonnutz]

Somaliland is honestly one of the most stable states in the Horn of Africa. Lack of international recognition is due to them not breaking bread with the western banking cartels, not because they have contested or unstable authority over the region.

[Sanandaj_geo]

This video literally shows how diverse is Iran 😁 as Iranian Kurd I just like Iran look like how it does today, but with a good government and more rights for minorities.😌

[davedav]

You're forgetting the risk of collapse of the Belgian state and the independence of Flanders.

[Reza-ufql]

Iran's protests have nothing to do with a division in the country and in fact that is not even a minor threat for a country like Iran. As an Iranian Azeri I should say that unification of The UK and France is a more probable thing than Iran's Azeri part joining The republic of Azerbaijan!

[HobNob-trnm]

Theres a common theme with these, people assume that whatever is happening in a country will continue at the same rate, whereas in reality it either excellerates or stops.

[GhostCountries]

Hey, great video man - Azawad has always interested me! Despite their often tumultuous relationship with colonial French authorities, more than a few Tuareg seemed to believe Paris would allow for the creation of some kind of autonomous Tuareg-Berber state. That never happened of course and I do agree, following the Tuareg Rebellion of 2012, I think it's highly unlikely we'll seen an independent Azawad anytime soon...if ever. There's still a possibility of greater autonomy within Mali, but I guess only time will tell.

[FoodieSall]

As a Pakistani, if the government continues to do basically nothing then yeah its probably gonna collapse.

[javiervll]

In Spain 🇪🇸 we also have several independence movements, the main ones being: the Catalan one, which demands the independence of Catalonia; the Basque, which claims the independence of “Euskal Herria” (formed by the Spanish Basque Country, Navarre, and the French Basque Country) and the Galician, which claims the independence of Galicia.

[Dexspo_TV]

The East African Union sounds like an interesting idea

[kairon]

I heard that Africa wants to avoid certain border splits based on culture and race because that could bring back some bad times like earlier in their history.
With that I'm sure many places do want to split into smaller nations as well.

[thegreekguy]

You should make a video about possible border changes in the near future

[azulamazighberber]

1:40 Thank you for talking about my origin, Kabylia in Algeria. Where did you find that image?

[boobie]

I dont see balochistan independent, its very unlikely it can survive and iran wont let balochistan independent bec it might encourage the balochies in iran to have an independent movement, other than that cpec ( china pakistan economic corridor)needs gawadar which is a city in balochistan so china will also be against it and the last country balochistan will border is afghanistan and the greater Afghanistan includes balochistan and theyll try to take over balochistan's cheap gas and resources, that only leaves india as a potential ally in the reigon but i dont think india would really go to war with pakistan over balochistan since india is rapidly growing and going to a war with another nuclear power might end their rapid economic growth, and pushtunistan is very unlikely rn

[caiostocco]

Somaliland has recently been recognized by Taiwan (ROC) so I guess that's something

[Charlie-Em]

"Civilization Day" is a good one.